laughedatbytime Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Suppose you were asked to participate in an experiment regarding flipping a coin. You were told the coin was fair at the inception of the experiment but it keeps coming up on the same side. After how many flips do you reject the premise that the coin is fair, if you do so at all? Votes are public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenJennings Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 (edited) Statistical anomalies happen. But getting into the ten plus range, I want to know what's going on. Edited October 26, 2021 by KenJennings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laughedatbytime Posted October 27, 2021 Author Share Posted October 27, 2021 Statistical anomalies happen. But getting into the ten plus range, I want to know what's going on.There certainly IS a mathematical component to the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J2112YYZ Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 It doesn't take long for me to jump on the "this shit is fixed" train. So probably after the third and forth time it comes up the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnRogers Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 It would be several flips for me. So that rules out anything under 7. Twelve would be a dozen. So 8 to 11 feels right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenJennings Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Odds of N flips being the same... 1: 12: 1/23: 1/44: 1/185: 1/166: 1/327: 1/648: 1/1289: 1/25610: 1/51211: 1/102412: 1/2048... I stand by my ~10+ breaking point. 1 in 1000 starts to feel pretty exceptional. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laughedatbytime Posted October 27, 2021 Author Share Posted October 27, 2021 Twelve would be a dozen.Are you SURE?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick N. Backer Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 If I'm told it's never, then it's never. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnRogers Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 If I'm told it's never, then it's never.By who? The doctor of his receptionist? It matters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbanezJem Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laughedatbytime Posted October 27, 2021 Author Share Posted October 27, 2021 Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;)) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grep Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 I'd question after 4. That's long enough. Because the reality of it is that the distribution of heads and tails should be close to 50%. 4 shows that it's unlikely that the coin is fair. It's not proof though. Hence the question, and then further observation. After my stake in the game , if any, is out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueschica Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance. I'm with you. But then, it does take me a minute to catch on when things are not quite right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbanezJem Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))Rick is right, technically - the best kind of "right" :lol: Being correct in an argument that flies in the face of all logic and common sense is a favourite abode of mine. I used to go to the Casino a few times a week between 2000 and 2007. A friend (really, it wasn`t me) had a lightbulb moment with a new strategy for Roulette, where you would wait patiently and play the thirds - if 25-36 hasn`t hit for five spins, you lump on, doubling your stake each spin until it hits, as of course it has to...right? And you don`t lose the five spins you wait. There was deep schadenfreude in watching him sprinting to the cashier after 15 spins without ever hitting the final third, and his stake reached £800 on a spin... he gave up, and it was 18 spins ultimately, which is beyond the logic of a 1/3 chance but definitely within the infinite realm of a probable outcome. I played less aggressively, as the complete chance element suited my view of a universe in chaos. And anyone with ADHD will enjoy watching a shiny ball spinning around :ebert: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laughedatbytime Posted October 27, 2021 Author Share Posted October 27, 2021 Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))Rick is right, technically - the best kind of "right" :lol: Being correct in an argument that flies in the face of all logic and common sense is a favourite abode of mine. I used to go to the Casino a few times a week between 2000 and 2007. A friend (really, it wasn`t me) had a lightbulb moment with a new strategy for Roulette, where you would wait patiently and play the thirds - if 25-36 hasn`t hit for five spins, you lump on, doubling your stake each spin until it hits, as of course it has to...right? And you don`t lose the five spins you wait. There was deep schadenfreude in watching him sprinting to the cashier after 15 spins without ever hitting the final third, and his stake reached £800 on a spin... he gave up, and it was 18 spins ultimately, which is beyond the logic of a 1/3 chance but definitely within the infinite realm of a probable outcome. I played less aggressively, as the complete chance element suited my view of a universe in chaos. And anyone with ADHD will enjoy watching a shiny ball spinning around :ebert:Ah, this is a truly great example of the best, deepest, and most abiding type of friendship, one sustained by the pure enjoyment of watching your friend suffer... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbanezJem Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))Rick is right, technically - the best kind of "right" :lol: Being correct in an argument that flies in the face of all logic and common sense is a favourite abode of mine. I used to go to the Casino a few times a week between 2000 and 2007. A friend (really, it wasn`t me) had a lightbulb moment with a new strategy for Roulette, where you would wait patiently and play the thirds - if 25-36 hasn`t hit for five spins, you lump on, doubling your stake each spin until it hits, as of course it has to...right? And you don`t lose the five spins you wait. There was deep schadenfreude in watching him sprinting to the cashier after 15 spins without ever hitting the final third, and his stake reached £800 on a spin... he gave up, and it was 18 spins ultimately, which is beyond the logic of a 1/3 chance but definitely within the infinite realm of a probable outcome. I played less aggressively, as the complete chance element suited my view of a universe in chaos. And anyone with ADHD will enjoy watching a shiny ball spinning around :ebert:Ah, this is a truly great example of the best, deepest, and most abiding type of friendship, one sustained by the pure enjoyment of watching your friend suffer...He`s not ready to laugh with me over his £21,000 gaming losses in 2006 alone, not yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordgalaxy Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))Rick is right, technically - the best kind of "right" :lol: Being correct in an argument that flies in the face of all logic and common sense is a favourite abode of mine. I used to go to the Casino a few times a week between 2000 and 2007. A friend (really, it wasn`t me) had a lightbulb moment with a new strategy for Roulette, where you would wait patiently and play the thirds - if 25-36 hasn`t hit for five spins, you lump on, doubling your stake each spin until it hits, as of course it has to...right? And you don`t lose the five spins you wait. There was deep schadenfreude in watching him sprinting to the cashier after 15 spins without ever hitting the final third, and his stake reached £800 on a spin... he gave up, and it was 18 spins ultimately, which is beyond the logic of a 1/3 chance but definitely within the infinite realm of a probable outcome. I played less aggressively, as the complete chance element suited my view of a universe in chaos. And anyone with ADHD will enjoy watching a shiny ball spinning around :ebert:Ah, this is a truly great example of the best, deepest, and most abiding type of friendship, one sustained by the pure enjoyment of watching your friend suffer...He`s not ready to laugh with me over his £21,000 gaming losses in 2006 alone, not yet. Ouch. that's a lot of Pound sterlings (or is it pounds sterling?) You Brits sometimes have funny ways with words. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbanezJem Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))Rick is right, technically - the best kind of "right" :lol: Being correct in an argument that flies in the face of all logic and common sense is a favourite abode of mine. I used to go to the Casino a few times a week between 2000 and 2007. A friend (really, it wasn`t me) had a lightbulb moment with a new strategy for Roulette, where you would wait patiently and play the thirds - if 25-36 hasn`t hit for five spins, you lump on, doubling your stake each spin until it hits, as of course it has to...right? And you don`t lose the five spins you wait. There was deep schadenfreude in watching him sprinting to the cashier after 15 spins without ever hitting the final third, and his stake reached £800 on a spin... he gave up, and it was 18 spins ultimately, which is beyond the logic of a 1/3 chance but definitely within the infinite realm of a probable outcome. I played less aggressively, as the complete chance element suited my view of a universe in chaos. And anyone with ADHD will enjoy watching a shiny ball spinning around :ebert:Ah, this is a truly great example of the best, deepest, and most abiding type of friendship, one sustained by the pure enjoyment of watching your friend suffer...He`s not ready to laugh with me over his £21,000 gaming losses in 2006 alone, not yet. Ouch. that's a lot of Pound sterlings (or is it pounds sterling?) You Brits sometimes have funny ways with words. ;)Some times we`d have pounds sterling stuffed in our socks because our wallets had exploded, other times it took till about Wednesday lunchtime before you could even speak :banghead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goose Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 "It's a fair coin." http://www.latimes.com/includes/projects/hollywood/portraits/penn-teller.jpg "We didn't say it was a fair toss." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Cocky Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 11 heads in a row has a 0.1% chance of happening. I'm wondering at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenJennings Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 This seemed relevant. https://www.usbets.com/raiders-reddit-coin-flip/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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