The Official 2024 NFL Thread

[laughedatbytime]

On 11/4/2024 at 12:39 AM, HemiBeers said:

if it makes you feel any better, every team that's played the lions loses the next game. Next up for Green Bay is da Bears. 

 

ooops edit...titans beat patriots today. bless your heart.

 

You could easily argue that the Titans didn’t actually play that game.

[Principled Man]

Bengals walk into the classic trap of going for 2 on the road.  

 

You kick the XPT and go to overtime, dammit! 

You're scoring almost at will against their defense, so you give yourself a chance to win it in OT.

This is the Way.         

[Nova Carmina]

6 hours ago, Principled Man said:

Bengals walk into the classic trap of going for 2 on the road.  

 

You kick the XPT and go to overtime, dammit! 

You're scoring almost at will against their defense, so you give yourself a chance to win it in OT.

This is the Way.         

 

A dime says they were freaked out by the Bucs' failure to go for two on Monday night. 

[HemiBeers]

14 hours ago, Principled Man said:

Bengals walk into the classic trap of going for 2 on the road.  

 

You kick the XPT and go to overtime, dammit! 

You're scoring almost at will against their defense, so you give yourself a chance to win it in OT.

This is the Way.         

going for 2 is about 50/50. coin flip for overtime is 50/50. pick your poison. 

 

Given the score, neither team was playing good defense. The coin flip in OT would have determined the winner.

 

According to Google AI:

The probability of a successful two-point conversion in the NFL is between 40% and 55%. This is much lower than the success rate for a one-point conversion, which is between 90% and 95%. However, the two-point conversion has a higher expected value because of its higher value.  

Some factors that affect the success rate of a two-point conversion include:

Team offense

Teams with better offenses are more likely to succeed. For example, the top 10% of projected offenses per game converted at a 59% rate, while the lower third converted at just above 40%.  

Edited November 9, 2024 by HemiBeers

[laughedatbytime]

1 minute ago, HemiBeers said:

going for 2 is about 50/50. coin flip for overtime is 50/50. pick your poison. 

I would have agreed before this year but with 38 seconds and touchbacks coming out to the 30, the chances to gain 35-40 yards over that time is pretty high, if the 2 point conversion is successful.  +(With a tie the Ravens may have run out the clock instead of going for the win in OT.)

[Principled Man]

30 minutes ago, HemiBeers said:

going for 2 is about 50/50. coin flip for overtime is 50/50. pick your poison. 

 

My pet peeve is the longtime "doctrine" of "Go for the tie at home.  Go for the win on the road." 

It's all based the alleged home field advantage, which I think is crap. 

 

Whoever wins the coin toss gets the advantage, which can disappear very quickly if you screw up.      

[Wandering Hermit]

On 11/8/2024 at 10:41 AM, Nova Carmina said:

 

A dime says they were freaked out by the Bucs' failure to go for two on Monday night. 

Apples and oranges IMO. I think playing vs. Mahomes you have to go for 2 at the end, because he WILL beat you in OT, period. I wish it wasn't so. 

[HemiBeers]

22 hours ago, laughedatbytime said:

I would have agreed before this year but with 38 seconds and touchbacks coming out to the 30, the chances to gain 35-40 yards over that time is pretty high, if the 2 point conversion is successful.  +(With a tie the Ravens may have run out the clock instead of going for the win in OT.)

point taken. but i go with the Dan Campbell philosophy...always go for it. 

 

On a tangent discussion, I'm surprised that kickers aren't squib kicking it down to about the 10 on kickoffs. Seems like you could back the return team up short of the 30. Plus a squib kick causes confusion and potential fumbles. The NFL is just taking the cowards way out by kicking touchbacks like last year rendering the new kickoff rules useless.

 

On tweak to the rule: you're allowed only 2 touchbacks per game. After that the touchback comes out to the 40. 

 

Another tweak. On missed field goals longer that the 30 yard line, the other team only gets possession at the 30 rather than the spot of the missed kick. Encourage those long field goal tries. 

 

I'm on a roll tonight. Give me a NFL advisory job.

[laughedatbytime]

3 hours ago, HemiBeers said:

point taken. but i go with the Dan Campbell philosophy...always go for it. 

 

On a tangent discussion, I'm surprised that kickers aren't squib kicking it down to about the 10 on kickoffs. Seems like you could back the return team up short of the 30. Plus a squib kick causes confusion and potential fumbles. The NFL is just taking the cowards way out by kicking touchbacks like last year rendering the new kickoff rules useless.

 

On tweak to the rule: you're allowed only 2 touchbacks per game. After that the touchback comes out to the 40. 

 

Another tweak. On missed field goals longer that the 30 yard line, the other team only gets possession at the 30 rather than the spot of the missed kick. Encourage those long field goal tries. 

 

I'm on a roll tonight. Give me a NFL advisory job.

Agree with this, but they can't do a true squib, because if the ball hits the ground before the 20 yard line, it comes out to the 40.

[HemiBeers]

Lions game. 5 interceptions. win probability of approximately .00000000000000001%. came back and won with their brick salesman kicker. 

 

Hey guys, go back to putting up 40. Pulling these crazy games out of your ass is taking years off my life.

[pjbear05]

8 hours ago, HemiBeers said:

Lions game. 5 interceptions. win probability of approximately .00000000000000001%. came back and won with their brick salesman kicker. 

 

Hey guys, go back to putting up 40. Pulling these crazy games out of your ass is taking years off my life.

Tell me about it!  Then again both teams had help.  I think the zebras all were blinded by those hideous red uni's and helmets.

[Wandering Hermit]

Lions-Chiefs Superb Owl. Bleech.

 

That seems to be where we are headed. Not seeing who is going to prevent it.

[BastillePark]

Chiefs lose to the Bills. Sweet.

[Wandering Hermit]

2 hours ago, BastillePark said:

Chiefs lose to the Bills. Sweet.

I approve, but until they can do it in the playoffs, it means absolutely nothing.

[invisible airwave]

On 10/25/2024 at 1:52 PM, Nova Carmina said:

 

It may not be that big a deal? 

Well, Goff's team is now ahead of them in the division.  Still love that guy.

 

 

[Principled Man]

On 11/17/2024 at 9:00 PM, Wandering Hermit said:

I approve, but until they can do it in the playoffs, it means absolutely nothing.

 

TRUTH.  This win won't mean squat if the Chiefs are setting up for another last-second winning score in the AFC Championship Game.  

[laughedatbytime]

The Jets fire titular GM Joe Douglas.  Their actual GM remains within the organization and is expected to start following their bye week.

[Wandering Hermit]

11 hours ago, Principled Man said:

 

TRUTH.  This win won't mean squat if the Chiefs are setting up for another last-second winning score in the AFC Championship Game.  

All this game did was allow Lucy to tee up the football. I refuse to act the part of Charlie Brown again.

[Principled Man]

41 minutes ago, laughedatbytime said:

The Jets fire titular GM Joe Douglas.  Their actual GM remains within the organization and is expected to start following their bye week.

 

This Packer fan has been giggling ever since The Trade.   

 

I did not make any bold predictions back then, but I was fairly confident that the Jets would regret the trade very much. 

No capturing the magic that another team had enjoyed years before! 

You build a solid team first, THEN you go get your aging star QB.   

[pjbear05]

Now I've fu***ng seen it.  4th quarter Cowboys up on the Commanders 27-20.  Dallas punts, Wash fair catches at their 14, :33 to go  Wash throws downfield, Terry McLaurin takes it all the way, 27-26.   Wash low snaps, kicker hooks the PAT, NG.  WA tries onside kick, Dallas one hops,  Juanyeh Thomas takes it to the house, 'Pokes kick PAT, win 34-26.  

Edited November 24, 2024 by pjbear05

[laughedatbytime]

58 minutes ago, pjbear05 said:

Now I've fu***ng seen it.  4th quarter Cowboys up on the Commanders 27-20.  Dallas punts, Wash fair catches at their 14, :33 to go  Wash throws downfield, Terry McLaurin takes it all the way, 27-26.   Wash low snaps, kicker hooks the PAT, NG.  WA tries onside kick, Dallas one hops,  Juanyeh Thomas takes it to the house, 'Pokes kick PAT, win 34-26.  

Not sure if this was worse than the previous gold standard.     

 

I think today's was worse because the Cowboys were the beneficiaries.    But maybe this is enough to save McCarthy's job. *fingers crossed*

[Principled Man]

Packers 38

49ers 10  

 

A very satisfying win.  It doesn't erase the heartbreaking loss to the 49ers in the playoffs last year (and several other years), but it does help Packer Nation move on from it.  Jordan Love looked really good today.  Josh Jacobs is a strong, determined running back.  I like him! 

[HemiBeers]

44 minutes ago, Principled Man said:

Packers 38

49ers 10  

 

A very satisfying win.  It doesn't erase the heartbreaking loss to the 49ers in the playoffs last year (and several other years), but it does help Packer Nation move on from it.  Jordan Love looked really good today.  Josh Jacobs is a strong, determined running back.  I like him! 

niners are a shell of their former team. they'll be lucky to finish .500

[HemiBeers]

lions take care of business despite the backup CB Vildor. He couldn't cover my grandma...and she's dead. Next up Bears on Thanksgiving. 

 

The end of the Minny Bears game was....interesting. Bears do enough to tie it, but still manage to shoot themselves. That one long play in overtime by Williams really killed them. Son, move your feet, roll-out, run and get some yards or throw it away, but DON'T STAND THERE AND GET A 15 YARD SACK! Kid wants to play hero ball all the time.

 

Bears vs Lions has me worried. Bears played them tough last year and beat them once. Goff had his worse games against them last year. If I was a betting man, I'd pick the Bears to cover.

 

Hoping some teams can knock off Philly and Minny and give the Lions a little breathing room.

[Principled Man]

5 minutes ago, HemiBeers said:

The end of the Minny Bears game was....interesting. Bears do enough to tie it, but still manage to shoot themselves. That one long play in overtime by Williams really killed them. Son, move your feet, roll-out, run and get some yards or throw it away, but DON'T STAND THERE AND GET A 15 YARD SACK! Kid wants to play hero ball all the time.

 

The play-calling was also at fault.  They shouldn't call plays that make him a rigid pocket passer.  Da Bears did this to Williams last week against the Packers in crunch time.  He got sacked in two straight plays.  Nowhere to go.