Roadrunner's expectations.

[snowdog2112]

I'm really curious what Roadrunner expects CA to sell considering we've heard about a "massive" promotion campaign getting underway as the album gets closer. I just don't think a lot of people realize how dismal album sales are overall and especially for rock. I remember Neil commenting a couple years ago that S&A basically just broke even and record sales have dropped considerably just since then. If S&A sold maybe 400,000 or so and didn't make any money why the hell spend any money promoting anything anymore?

 

As of a few weeks ago the new Van Halen album was the second best selling new album of the year behind only a compilation and it's still sitting at only around 330,000 sold. More people will actually get the albums but they all just either torrent them or get copies from friends. At this point it seems like if CA even hits 200,000 within the first year it'll be a huge success relatively speaking. But all the sales will come from hardcore Rush fans who will decide to buy it or not regardless of any record company promotion so I'm not sure what the point is. There simply is no casual rock market anymore, especially for older bands.

 

I was just thinking about all this because of a thread on a VH forum where they were talking about the same thing.

 

Look at this list, it's the top selling rock albums for all of 2011. For those that don't want to go page by page through it I'll summarize it below:

 

#1 - Coldplay- Mylo Xyloto (908,000 copies)

#2 - Noel Gallagher's High Flying Birds (492,000 copies)

#3 - Florence & The Machine- Ceremonials (384,000 copies)

#4 - Foo Fighters- Wasting Light (380,000 copies)

#5 - Mumford & Sons- Sigh No More (373,000 copies)

#6 - Elbow- Build A Rocket Boys (327,000 copies)

#7 - Kasabian- Velociraptor (279,000 copies)

#8 - Snow Patrol- Fallen Empires (269,000 copies)

#9 - Noah & The Whale- Last Night On Earth (261,000 copies)

#10 - Arctic Monkeys- Suck It and See (223,000 copies)

 

http://www.gigwise.com/photos/70084/1/The-...-Albums-Of-2011

 

 

Ok, I'm old, but I swear to you I've only heard of three of those. When I grew up rock music was bands like Van Halen and Def Leppard that were selling 10 million-plus. Now we've got Elbow and Mumford and Sons and 4 of the top 10 sellers are in the freaking 200,000s. Not a single platinum rock album and only 1 that sold over half a million.

 

Rock is truly dead.

 

 

 

[savagegrace26]

But that doesnt include digital album sales via amazon or itunes does it?

[presto123]

You can't compare this era to past eras with regards to record sales. Downloading has changed everything. Pop artists sell a fraction of what they used to as well. 200,000 is the new platinum I would say. If Rush hits that mark I would say it's pretty good in this day and age.

[ReflectedLight]

the fact that it was s & a didn't exactly help the situation.

[Merely Space]

Wow. No million plus sellers?

 

But savagegrace is right, they need to find a better way of incorporating digital sales into the figures. Though, I imagine one of the problems is that fewer people are downloading entire albums, just grabbing the songs they like.

[snowdog2112]

QUOTE (savagegrace26 @ Apr 25 2012, 02:14 PM)

But that doesnt include digital album sales via amazon or itunes does it?

In general Billboard and other major outlets do count digital sales where every ten songs you sell counts as one album, known as "album equivalents". This article doesn't specify one way or the other, though.

 

 

 

 

[metaldad]

QUOTE (savagegrace26 @ Apr 25 2012, 03:14 PM)

But that doesnt include digital album sales via amazon or itunes does it?

Sure it does. RR had a problem when the last Slipknot album was released . I forget who's album came out the same day but a week later when the Billboard 200 list came out, Slipknot was at number 2 . RR alerted Billboard and had them total all the Amazon, I-tunes and pre-orders . The next day Slipknot had the #1 album

[grand phil-nale]

I doubt S&A sold much over 200,00 copies if that. More than likely RR is budgeting the marketing for CA with a reasonable sales number. Rush is by far their biggest investment minus Nickelback. So it makes sense for them to heavily promote CA. Edited April 25, 2012 by grand phil-nale

[snowdog2112]

QUOTE (presto123 @ Apr 25 2012, 02:17 PM)

You can't compare this era to past eras with regards to record sales. Downloading has changed everything. Pop artists sell a fraction of what they used to as well. 200,000 is the new platinum I would say. If Rush hits that mark I would say it's pretty good in this day and age.

Of course, that was my whole point. Albums won't sell regardless of how good they are or who the bands are or how much you promote them so what's the point in even trying to promote anything?

[metaldad]

QUOTE (grand phil-nale @ Apr 25 2012, 03:25 PM)

Rush is by far their biggest investment minus Nickelback. So it makes sense for them to heavily promote CA.

Nickleback and Slipknot are much bigger investments than Rush

[GeddyRulz]

Digital downloads changed everything when it comes to album sales, true.

 

People are buying albums less these days, especially rock, true.

 

But also: Rush always had a sales problem. Sure, their albums usually go Gold or Platinum (Rush rank third in most number of consecutive gold-or-better albums), but it's just us diehards buying the new Rush album in the first few weeks. After that, sales of new Rush albums plummet. Diehard fans have kept them alive; casual fans aren't buying.

 

There's no reason for RR to promote for our benefit; we'll all buy the album anyway. If RR is going hard on promoting it, they must be after the casual rock fans... and sales to them probably won't make RR's promotional efforts worthwhile.

Edited April 25, 2012 by GeddyRulz

[EmotionDetector]

QUOTE (ReflectedLight @ Apr 25 2012, 04:17 PM)

the fact that it was s & a didn't exactly help the situation.

 

Pretty funny...but let's be honest, MOST Rush fans always buy the records, whether they end up loving it or hating it.

 

There are alot of you here that hate S&A, but still have it on your CD rack at home. Same with the haters of RTB, TFE, etc...you all own them regardless of your personal feelings for them.

 

I'd say that Rush has seemingly been growing in fan base, especially over the last few years. Now...the big question is, will these new fans actually be going out to purchase CA at the stores, or will they simply download it?

 

Personally, I love having the physical medium, and nothing will change that for me. Having the CD in my hands is something special that downloading simply can't do for me. But the younger generation (geez, I'm only 28!) is very much into iTunes and downloads, so I'm curious to see how it all pans out.

 

If CA outsells S&A, I wouldn't associate it with the material itself, but rather the fact that their fanbase has been steadly growing over the last few years.

[metaldad]

QUOTE (EmotionDetector @ Apr 25 2012, 03:33 PM)

If CA outsells S&A, I wouldn't associate it with the material itself

Oh i would

[Lost In Xanadu]

QUOTE (EmotionDetector @ Apr 25 2012, 03:33 PM)

QUOTE (ReflectedLight @ Apr 25 2012, 04:17 PM) the fact that it was s & a didn't exactly help the situation.   Pretty funny...but let's be honest, MOST Rush fans always buy the records, whether they end up loving it or hating it.   There are alot of you here that hate S&A, but still have it on your CD rack at home. Same with the haters of RTB, TFE, etc...you all own them regardless of your personal feelings for them.   I'd say that Rush has seemingly been growing in fan base, especially over the last few years. Now...the big question is, will these new fans actually be going out to purchase CA at the stores, or will they simply download it?   Personally, I love having the physical medium, and nothing will change that for me. Having the CD in my hands is something special that downloading simply can't do for me. But the younger generation (geez, I'm only 28!) is very much into iTunes and downloads, so I'm curious to see how it all pans out.   If CA outsells S&A, I wouldn't associate it with the material itself, but rather the fact that their fanbase has been steadly growing over the last few years. Them doing the Olympics and SNL sure have helped

[metaldad]

QUOTE (snowdog2112 @ Apr 25 2012, 03:00 PM)

#3 - Florence & The Machine- Ceremonials (384,000 copies) #5 - Mumford & Sons- Sigh No More (373,000 copies) #6 - Elbow- Build A Rocket Boys (327,000 copies) #7 - Kasabian- Velociraptor (279,000 copies) #9 - Noah & The Whale- Last Night On Earth (261,000 copies)

Btw, who the Fu*k are these people ?

[EmotionDetector]

QUOTE (metaldad @ Apr 25 2012, 04:27 PM)

QUOTE (grand phil-nale @ Apr 25 2012, 03:25 PM) Rush is by far their biggest investment minus Nickelback. So it makes sense for them to heavily promote CA. Nickleback and Slipknot are much bigger investments than Rush Is Slipknot really THAT big?   I'm being serious...I'm not all that familiar with their music or sales.

[Rush Cocky]

QUOTE (metaldad @ Apr 25 2012, 04:37 PM)

QUOTE (snowdog2112 @ Apr 25 2012, 03:00 PM) #3 - Florence & The Machine- Ceremonials (384,000 copies) #5 - Mumford & Sons- Sigh No More (373,000 copies) #6 - Elbow- Build A Rocket Boys (327,000 copies) #7 - Kasabian- Velociraptor (279,000 copies) #9 - Noah & The Whale- Last Night On Earth (261,000 copies) Btw, who the Fu*k are these people ? I'd add a couple of more to your list, but yeah, who they are is a great question.

[Lost In Xanadu]

QUOTE (metaldad @ Apr 25 2012, 03:37 PM)

QUOTE (snowdog2112 @ Apr 25 2012, 03:00 PM) #3 - Florence & The Machine- Ceremonials (384,000 copies) #5 - Mumford & Sons- Sigh No More (373,000 copies) #6 - Elbow- Build A Rocket Boys (327,000 copies) #7 - Kasabian- Velociraptor (279,000 copies) #9 - Noah & The Whale- Last Night On Earth (261,000 copies) Btw, who the Fu*k are these people ? Florence and the Machine was on SNL one night. I remember I had to change the channel. I couldn't take it.

[rushgoober]

QUOTE (snowdog2112 @ Apr 25 2012, 01:00 PM)

I'm really curious what Roadrunner expects CA to sell considering we've heard about a "massive" promotion campaign getting underway as the album gets closer.

First off, is that true about Roadrunner doing a massive promotion campaign? I mean, has it been documented that they claim to be doing/planning that? No offense if this is a well established fact, it's just not something I was paying attention to.

 

Secondly, and more importantly, maybe Roadrunner isn't thinking in terms of album sales, which they know won't be that high regardless, but is thinking of promoting them heavily to increase visibility, and ultimately ticket sales? Does Roadrunner get a piece of ticket sale dollars?

Edited April 25, 2012 by rushgoober

[EmotionDetector]

QUOTE (metaldad @ Apr 25 2012, 04:34 PM)

QUOTE (EmotionDetector @ Apr 25 2012, 03:33 PM) If CA outsells S&A, I wouldn't associate it with the material itself Oh i would   Not unless there are some sheltered Rush "fans" sitting around that thought the band stopped working together after Moving Pictures, and that this was a big 'comeback'.   Seriously...I'm not sure that there are many Rush fans out there that determine whether or not they will buy the new album based on the singles released or the direction of the new music.   There are some people on here that have stated negative feelings about some of the new songs, and I guarantee they will still be out on June 12 purchasing the CD.

[Rush Cocky]

QUOTE (Lost In Xanadu @ Apr 25 2012, 04:44 PM)

Florence and the Machine was on SNL one night.

That explains it.

 

SNL hasn't been funny for 15 years.

[metaldad]

QUOTE (EmotionDetector @ Apr 25 2012, 03:42 PM)

QUOTE (metaldad @ Apr 25 2012, 04:27 PM) QUOTE (grand phil-nale @ Apr 25 2012, 03:25 PM) Rush is by far their biggest investment minus Nickelback. So it makes sense for them to heavily promote CA. Nickleback and Slipknot are much bigger investments than Rush Is Slipknot really THAT big?   I'm being serious...I'm not all that familiar with their music or sales. Their last 3 albums went to Number 1 on billboard and they have sold Millions. I am not really a fan myself

[snowdog2112]

QUOTE (grand phil-nale @ Apr 25 2012, 02:25 PM)

I doubt S&A sold much over 200,00 copies if that. More than likely RR is budgeting the marketing for CA with a reasonable sales number. Rush is by far their biggest investment minus Nickelback. So it makes sense for them to heavily promote CA.

No, it's closer to 400,000-450,000 now. It sold 93,000 the first week. I'd bet quite a bit that CA sells around 70,000-80,000 the first week, 20,000 the next, 10,000 the next, and about 3,000 a week from then on with maybe a small uptick when the tour starts. About 100,000 the first month and maybe 200,000-250,000 within a year. Most young people who want it will simply download it illegally and older rock fans won't even know about it or care unless they're the kinds that hang out on forums like us.

 

People tune out when they get older, I have friends that grew up hardcore Van Halen fans that didn't even know they had a new album out or that David Lee Roth was back in the band until I told them. I've reconnected with high school friends through facebook that were Rush fans in the 80s and even went to shows with me that constantly give me "Rush? Are they still around?" whenever I reference them. The idea that the quality of the records matters is kind of silly considering how many people who grew up as rock fans simply don't buy music or even know about it anymore. It wouldn't matter if S&A or CA was 10 times better than Moving Pictures, those people wouldn't know it, wouldn't care, and wouldn't buy it.

 

Most young people don't listen to any rock at all these days and tons of older fans have just moved on with their lives. For example, two of my best friends that grew up with the same favorite bands I did are far more likely to be aware of and actually go to an upcoming Disney on Ice show because of their kids than even be aware that Rush or VH was touring. Those are the kinds of people who made albums like Moving Pictures and 1984 multiplatinum many times over but that style of music is no longer in the pop culture and they simply don't care anymore. Most people are not like us, they get into music when they're young and receptive and after a time that window just shuts. They'll always have a nostalgic feeling about music from that time and simply not know or care about anything else. My dad was 18 in 1960 and he has a huge record collection from the 50s and 60s and he probably couldn't name more than 10 rock albums from 1970 through today if his life depended on it. That's the way most people are.

Edited April 25, 2012 by snowdog2112

[Lost In Xanadu]

QUOTE (Rush Cocky @ Apr 25 2012, 03:47 PM)

QUOTE (Lost In Xanadu @ Apr 25 2012, 04:44 PM) Florence and the Machine was on SNL one night. That explains it.   SNL hasn't been funny for 15 years.     Usually I'm not expecting the musical act to be funny

[grand phil-nale]

QUOTE (snowdog2112 @ Apr 25 2012, 03:51 PM)

QUOTE (grand phil-nale @ Apr 25 2012, 02:25 PM) I doubt S&A sold much over 200,00 copies if that. More than likely RR is budgeting the marketing for CA with a reasonable sales number. Rush is by far their biggest investment minus Nickelback. So it makes sense for them to heavily promote CA. No, it's closer to 400,000-450,000 now. Source?