grep

Oh, it can and it likely already has. We're f***ed. Then why haven't Drs. Fauci and Birx been on TV telling people the risk they're creating? Why when I watch the news coverage of the riots don't I hear much talk about the lack of "social distancing?" Last night here in the Boston area protestors gathered in a group larger than 10 (by about 500) outside a Boston Police station. One officer took a knee at the protestors' request and held hands with some of the protestors. The news anchor showing the footage talked about how poignant the moment was. Of course, on my morning run I still see people cross the street to avoid being less than 10 yards away from another person. My point is more about the rank hypocrisy here. Are the authorities only going to enforce the rules against people who are inclined to follow them? 5000 protestors aren't being called #covidiots but 20 people in a pool are? Why is that? I don't have a good answer. It's obvious that there's greater chance for spread in a large group that isn't taking precautions. Why the media doesn't point this out with regularity? IDK. It has been mentioned in some coverage I've seen. Also, interestingly, many protestors do wear masks. We all react differently to things. Some pay attention, some don't.

I'm not planning on dying anytime soon. I've fought too hard to get along and survive this far. Not gonna' let this thing take me out. Well if you consider hiding in your house and not doing anything but cowering in fear "living" then live away. That's your choice and I support you choosing whatever you choose to do. Just don't dictate that I have to live with the same baseless fear as you. This is great. you don't know exactly how I'm handling it, what my strategy and tactics are specifically. You keep asking, I'll keep being evasive. :)

I'll be alive in 600 days.

I'm not planning on dying anytime soon. I've fought too hard to get along and survive this far. Not gonna' let this thing take me out.

My bullshit huh? This, coming from an admin. if you're going to say that I'm peddling fear, then I'm going to say that you're POV is minimizing the problem. We're on opposite ends of the spectrum here, friend. I still think, from watching this particular virus grow from nothing in January, that this is a population killer. You think, as I interpret it, that while it's a problem it's not nearly as bad as that. >>Even I thought the numbers would increase as things opened up and they really haven't. Doesn't that make you pause at all and rethink your blind fear? 3 or 4 weeks from symptoms to death. Let's see. Assuming the states don't fudge/hide numbers.

Oh, it can and it likely already has. We're f***ed. Oh for f**k sake here we go again... Exactly...watch for that next peak.

I'll have to go with VT. Think, layered, bricked. But even with those limitations, the songs themselves are great. Mostly.

Oh, it can and it likely already has. We're f***ed.

Hands down, Triumph. But let's not forget this gem: Frank Marino (Mahogany Rush) - Ordinary Man.

They will sell us complete shows in a couple of years. I'm certain. I wish I could be as certain as you are. It's the $ound of $alesmen.

RIP.

So, in 2024, it's going to be the 50th of the first record, and p/g40. in 2025, FBN and COS 50, along with PoW40. Interesting times.

They will sell us complete shows in a couple of years. I'm certain.

I don`t expect an answer, but Don Felder would be my first guess based on his autobiography. Nope. Why the secret? I don’t understand. Well, I'm kind of proud of it. That's why I mention it in the first place. He was my first guitar teacher as a kid, even though he was a kid himself at the time. He was that good then. Like a young EVH or a Randy. Even though I swtitched to bass later, I still apply some of the theory he taught me. I won't give away the name though, because he's not a fan of name dropping. And he's sort of distanced himself from his private life, in his professional life.

Holy Rivendell Batman!!!

The Song Remains The Same.

Coma. Top 100 song for me.

Old World Geddy: HEM. New World Geddy: HYF or p/g . Can't really decide.

ACDC did pretty good. Brian Johnson was successful. When they brought in Axyl, it worked. surprisingly.

I'd argue that this virus is significantly more deadly than any other thing. Even if you don't want to say 80,000 dead in the US because of inflated numbers. I'll be generous and cut that in half. So 40,000 dead in 2 months. Houston, we have a problem. The number of increased deaths is undeniable. They are burying people in mass graves in NYC, because so many are dying. So many more than normal. What's the cause of all that death? The media shoving it down our throats? It's real buddy. And the solution isn't as simple as some guy afraid of dying staying home. Staying home is also supposed to SLOW THE VIRUS DOWN, so that it has a reduced chance to spread to the vulnerable. Until there are vaccines and treatments. People are really showing their selfish, true colors with this thing. Normally I wouldn't give a shit. But people are dying because of it. And yeah, I look forward to the day that we can safely have beer together. I'll buy the first round. No shit it's real, buddy. So is the flu. Do you react like this every year when the flu comes around and kills up to 60,000- 65,000 people? No? Why not? It's a real question you should ask yourself. You almost seem militant to anyone who doesn't completely agree with you and want to seal themselves in a cave and not come out until a vaccine is ready. That is your choice to do that. Seal yourself in. Many of the rest of us are ready to get back to normal life and would rather "take the risk". Keep yourself sealed in - and people who feel they are at risk - stay in hiding. The opening of businesses and regular life that you are so against does not affect you because you are hunkering down until there is a vaccine or the virus goes away through herd immunity. So my going out won't affect you at all. In fact you should want people to all go out while you don't and then the 60-70% herd immunity will happen for you. Maybe you are the one who is selfish, not the ones willing to "take a chance" and who want to get the economic engine of this country running again. Militant? Strong willed is more like it. I'm not being selfish by understanding the nature of the virus, understanding that it's a killer, and not wanting to be one who'd infect someone else with it. When you're taking that risk, you're not just taking that risk for yourself. You are taking that risk for everyone down the line who you'd infect. Remember that. I do notice though that no one ever directly answers the question about what lives are worth. Then you could apply that to the flu or any "dangerous thing" like driving, no? Do you drive? How can you do that when you might kill someone? I mean 38,000 lives lost every year just in the US, 1.3 million world wide. Don't you care about people? Just one life saved... How can you ever go out in the flu season again? I mean you might have it and give it to someone who is going to a nursing home to visit their mother or grandmother! Give me a f***ing break. Again - if YOU are not going out then YOU can't get the virus right? Seriously, stay the f**k indoors and away from people if you want. That is your choice. Let's talk about risk vs impact then. One of us could slip in the shower and break our necks. There's risk in everything. In that case, it would just be our necks. The death would stop there. Limited exposure. Or we could get in the car and kill ourselves or someone else. Any number of ways. Again, pretty limited exposure as tragic as it is. Nobody else outside that small circle will be impacted. The Flu. Infectious. We pass it along and the R0 is usually around 1. It sucks, but that's the nature of the typical flu virus. So more exposure and chance of death than the singleton events above. Fortunately we as humans have some protection in built up immunity and mostly effective vaccines. For the most part flu isn't communacable until symptoms appear in the carrier. So smart people who are sick with the flu stay home, heal up, and as a net effect limit spread to he next person. 30 something thousand dead in a year sucks, but without vaccines and immunity would be a lot worse..... like it was in the past before modern medical science and vaccines were developed for the common flu strains. Which leads us to the COVID situation: COVID 19. R0 of as high as 5.6. No built up immunity thus far. No working vaccines or treatments. High mortality rate. That R0 means that one person can potentially infect more than 5 new people. That would be ASYMPTOMATIC spread. Spreaders may not know they have it. So they just go to the beach and the bar, catch it, and spread it unaware that it's happening. Risk potential for spreading to people down the line is huge - as we've seen. (and they spread to 4 friends, and they spread to 4 friends, and so on and so on and so on). The flu does not have an r0 of 1. an r0 of 1 would mean that statistically there is no increase in cases - as one recovers one gets it. The flu is actually around 1.3 on average (the r0 of any virus changes as time goes on - it is a moving target as more become immune) and the WHO (which has overblown everything to date), says that Covid 19 is between 1.4 and 2.5. SARS was stated at points to be 2.0. https://www.worldome...onavirus/#repro To put that in perspective, the measles is 12-18. https://pubmed.ncbi....h.gov/28757186/ Where do you get "as high as 5.6"? Never seen that number, as even the WHO initially had it at 1.5 - 3.5. I am sure there is some publication out there that claims such a high r0, as there seems to be many publications coming out of the woodwork with scary numbers and information that do not end up coming to fruition, but the CDC and WHO does not say 5.6. You say " For the most part flu isn't communacable [sic] until symptoms appear in the carrier." This is quite incorrect. https://www.cdc.gov/...ease/spread.htm Click the link and educate yourself on the flu. It is absolutely contagious before symptoms show up: Symptoms can begin about 2 days (but can range from 1 to 4 days) after the virus enters the body. That means that you may be able to pass on the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick. Some people can be infected with the flu virus but have no symptoms. During this time, those people may still spread the virus to others. Sound familiar? Yes, the flu is transmitted before symptoms, and yes people are asymptomatic with the flu and still pass it on (sound familiar?) Now, let's go back to your r0 value of 5.6, I'll even say just use your 4.0 if you want, although that is not a valid number, but rather one you pulled from the old top range estimates to instill more fear in people here, have you done the math on that 4.0 number? The mean incubation period is 4.5 days according to the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/...oV-2 infection. So have you done the math on you r0=4.0 number based on the incubation period? Let's start at KNOWN cases of 200,000 on April 1st - I will even give you the benefit of the doubt HUGELY in saying the 200,000 cases in the US represents not just cases confirmed, but ALL cases (it doesn't, so this is a huge gift to you on this demonstration). based on that info, using your r0 = 4.0 and incubation period 4.5 days average, how many people in the US should have it now? I'll tell you what. You won the argument. Have fun out there. Now I'm going to go 'hide in my closet'. Avoid crowds - yeah, lay low for a while. Fortunately the choices I've made in my life for the last 40 years have put me in a position where I can ride this out. Some short term sacrifice for the greater good, as well as my own. See ya'll in 600 days. By then this little argument won't matter.

I'd argue that this virus is significantly more deadly than any other thing. Even if you don't want to say 80,000 dead in the US because of inflated numbers. I'll be generous and cut that in half. So 40,000 dead in 2 months. Houston, we have a problem. The number of increased deaths is undeniable. They are burying people in mass graves in NYC, because so many are dying. So many more than normal. What's the cause of all that death? The media shoving it down our throats? It's real buddy. And the solution isn't as simple as some guy afraid of dying staying home. Staying home is also supposed to SLOW THE VIRUS DOWN, so that it has a reduced chance to spread to the vulnerable. Until there are vaccines and treatments. People are really showing their selfish, true colors with this thing. Normally I wouldn't give a shit. But people are dying because of it. And yeah, I look forward to the day that we can safely have beer together. I'll buy the first round. No shit it's real, buddy. So is the flu. Do you react like this every year when the flu comes around and kills up to 60,000- 65,000 people? No? Why not? It's a real question you should ask yourself. You almost seem militant to anyone who doesn't completely agree with you and want to seal themselves in a cave and not come out until a vaccine is ready. That is your choice to do that. Seal yourself in. Many of the rest of us are ready to get back to normal life and would rather "take the risk". Keep yourself sealed in - and people who feel they are at risk - stay in hiding. The opening of businesses and regular life that you are so against does not affect you because you are hunkering down until there is a vaccine or the virus goes away through herd immunity. So my going out won't affect you at all. In fact you should want people to all go out while you don't and then the 60-70% herd immunity will happen for you. Maybe you are the one who is selfish, not the ones willing to "take a chance" and who want to get the economic engine of this country running again. Militant? Strong willed is more like it. I'm not being selfish by understanding the nature of the virus, understanding that it's a killer, and not wanting to be one who'd infect someone else with it. When you're taking that risk, you're not just taking that risk for yourself. You are taking that risk for everyone down the line who you'd infect. Remember that. I do notice though that no one ever directly answers the question about what lives are worth. Then you could apply that to the flu or any "dangerous thing" like driving, no? Do you drive? How can you do that when you might kill someone? I mean 38,000 lives lost every year just in the US, 1.3 million world wide. Don't you care about people? Just one life saved... How can you ever go out in the flu season again? I mean you might have it and give it to someone who is going to a nursing home to visit their mother or grandmother! Give me a f***ing break. Again - if YOU are not going out then YOU can't get the virus right? Seriously, stay the f**k indoors and away from people if you want. That is your choice. Let's talk about risk vs impact then. One of us could slip in the shower and break our necks. There's risk in everything. In that case, it would just be our necks. The death would stop there. Limited exposure. Or we could get in the car and kill ourselves or someone else. Any number of ways. Again, pretty limited exposure as tragic as it is. Nobody else outside that small circle will be impacted. The Flu. Infectious. We pass it along and the R0 is usually 1 or less. It sucks, but that's the nature of the typical flu virus. So more exposure and chance of death than the singleton events above. Fortunately we as humans have some protection in built up immunity and mostly effective vaccines. For the most part flu isn't communacable until symptoms appear in the carrier. So smart people who are sick with the flu stay home, heal up, and as a net effect limit spread to he next person. 30 something thousand dead in a year sucks, but without vaccines and immunity would be a lot worse..... like it was in the past before modern medical science and vaccines were developed for the common flu strains. Which leads us to the COVID situation: COVID 19. R0 of as high as 5.6. No built up immunity thus far. No working vaccines or treatments. High mortality rate. That R0 means that one person can potentially infect more than 5 new people. That would be ASYMPTOMATIC spread. Spreaders may not know they have it. So they just go to the beach and the bar, catch it, and spread it unaware that it's happening. Risk potential for spreading to people down the line is huge - as we've seen. We're up to 90,000 dead from COVID/related. In the US, in less than 3 months. Some would say that number is inflated. OK. let's roll with that. How inflated? Let's try to assign some percentages or values to the 'inflation categories' then come back to a 'real' COVID number. What % of the number is outright bullshit? Sources? What % of the number is medicare 'bonus' inflation? Sources? What % of the number are retroactive and thus suspect? Sources? Other categories of inaccuracy? Type. %, Hard soruce. Type. %, Hard soruce. When we have that we can then talk about 90K being an inaccurate number. I agree that the number might be inaccurate it plausable. My question is why and by how much. I certainly wouldn't want to minimize the real number of dead with hersay and gut feelings. With the motivation of slanting that number to make it appear that the virus isn't as impactful as it really is. So if we're going to say that the number isn't real, why isn't it real? Thank God people like you can't impose your will against people like me, at least not in my country. While you are sitting in your bunker running the numbers, I'll be out to dinner with my wife tonight for the first time in 10 weeks :) Go live your life in fear. I'll be enjoying my life and feeling sorry for people like you. By the way, how are the Wisconsin numbers since they opened up? Must be tens of thousands new cases daily by now with people dying in the streets right? And in Georgia, Florida, etc right? Must be like the apocalypse in those states by now. At what point do you admit that the lock down and "stay at home" orders and closure of business and all this horseshit isn't doing what you claim? :cheers: Thank you.

mistake.

Maybe you can find a metric based on these recent figures from the US... 94K US COVID-attributed deaths 38 Million US unemployed That's just over 400 futures derailed (plus their families') for every COVID death. Be sure to consider the mean age of each population as you do the math. That IS an interesting way to look at it. Thank you. My POV, is that the unemployed can be taken care of somehow. We just need to do a much better job of it. The US has always shit on it's disadvantaged - that needs to change. But at least they can be helped. You can't bring back the dead.

I'd argue that this virus is significantly more deadly than any other thing. Even if you don't want to say 80,000 dead in the US because of inflated numbers. I'll be generous and cut that in half. So 40,000 dead in 2 months. Houston, we have a problem. The number of increased deaths is undeniable. They are burying people in mass graves in NYC, because so many are dying. So many more than normal. What's the cause of all that death? The media shoving it down our throats? It's real buddy. And the solution isn't as simple as some guy afraid of dying staying home. Staying home is also supposed to SLOW THE VIRUS DOWN, so that it has a reduced chance to spread to the vulnerable. Until there are vaccines and treatments. People are really showing their selfish, true colors with this thing. Normally I wouldn't give a shit. But people are dying because of it. And yeah, I look forward to the day that we can safely have beer together. I'll buy the first round. No shit it's real, buddy. So is the flu. Do you react like this every year when the flu comes around and kills up to 60,000- 65,000 people? No? Why not? It's a real question you should ask yourself. You almost seem militant to anyone who doesn't completely agree with you and want to seal themselves in a cave and not come out until a vaccine is ready. That is your choice to do that. Seal yourself in. Many of the rest of us are ready to get back to normal life and would rather "take the risk". Keep yourself sealed in - and people who feel they are at risk - stay in hiding. The opening of businesses and regular life that you are so against does not affect you because you are hunkering down until there is a vaccine or the virus goes away through herd immunity. So my going out won't affect you at all. In fact you should want people to all go out while you don't and then the 60-70% herd immunity will happen for you. Maybe you are the one who is selfish, not the ones willing to "take a chance" and who want to get the economic engine of this country running again. Militant? Strong willed is more like it. I'm not being selfish by understanding the nature of the virus, understanding that it's a killer, and not wanting to be one who'd infect someone else with it. When you're taking that risk, you're not just taking that risk for yourself. You are taking that risk for everyone down the line who you'd infect. Remember that. I do notice though that no one ever directly answers the question about what lives are worth. Then you could apply that to the flu or any "dangerous thing" like driving, no? Do you drive? How can you do that when you might kill someone? I mean 38,000 lives lost every year just in the US, 1.3 million world wide. Don't you care about people? Just one life saved... How can you ever go out in the flu season again? I mean you might have it and give it to someone who is going to a nursing home to visit their mother or grandmother! Give me a f***ing break. Again - if YOU are not going out then YOU can't get the virus right? Seriously, stay the f**k indoors and away from people if you want. That is your choice. Let's talk about risk vs impact then. One of us could slip in the shower and break our necks. There's risk in everything. In that case, it would just be our necks. The death would stop there. Limited exposure. Or we could get in the car and kill ourselves or someone else. Any number of ways. Again, pretty limited exposure as tragic as it is. Nobody else outside that small circle will be impacted. The Flu. Infectious. We pass it along and the R0 is usually around 1. It sucks, but that's the nature of the typical flu virus. So more exposure and chance of death than the singleton events above. Fortunately we as humans have some protection in built up immunity and mostly effective vaccines. For the most part flu isn't communacable until symptoms appear in the carrier. So smart people who are sick with the flu stay home, heal up, and as a net effect limit spread to he next person. 30 something thousand dead in a year sucks, but without vaccines and immunity would be a lot worse..... like it was in the past before modern medical science and vaccines were developed for the common flu strains. Which leads us to the COVID situation: COVID 19. R0 of as high as 5.6. No built up immunity thus far. No working vaccines or treatments. High mortality rate. That R0 means that one person can potentially infect more than 5 new people. That would be ASYMPTOMATIC spread. Spreaders may not know they have it. So they just go to the beach and the bar, catch it, and spread it unaware that it's happening. Risk potential for spreading to people down the line is huge - as we've seen. (and they spread to 4 friends, and they spread to 4 friends, and so on and so on and so on). We're up to 90,000 dead from COVID/related. In the US, in less than 3 months. Some would say that number is inflated. OK. let's roll with that. How inflated? Let's try to assign some percentages or values to the 'inflation categories' then come back to a 'real' COVID number. What % of the number is outright bullshit? Sources? What % of the number is 'medicare bonus' inflation? Sources? What % of the number are retroactive and thus suspect? Sources? Other categories of inaccuracy? Type. %, Hard source. Type. %, Hard source. When we have that we can then talk about 90K being an inaccurate number. I agree that the number might be inaccurate it's plausible. My question is why and by how much. I certainly wouldn't want to minimize the real number of dead with hersay and gut feelings - with the motivation of slanting that number to make it appear that the virus isn't as impactful as it really is. So if we're going to say that the number isn't real, why isn't it real?

I'd argue that this virus is significantly more deadly than any other thing. Even if you don't want to say 80,000 dead in the US because of inflated numbers. I'll be generous and cut that in half. So 40,000 dead in 2 months. Houston, we have a problem. The number of increased deaths is undeniable. They are burying people in mass graves in NYC, because so many are dying. So many more than normal. What's the cause of all that death? The media shoving it down our throats? It's real buddy. And the solution isn't as simple as some guy afraid of dying staying home. Staying home is also supposed to SLOW THE VIRUS DOWN, so that it has a reduced chance to spread to the vulnerable. Until there are vaccines and treatments. People are really showing their selfish, true colors with this thing. Normally I wouldn't give a shit. But people are dying because of it. And yeah, I look forward to the day that we can safely have beer together. I'll buy the first round. No shit it's real, buddy. So is the flu. Do you react like this every year when the flu comes around and kills up to 60,000- 65,000 people? No? Why not? It's a real question you should ask yourself. You almost seem militant to anyone who doesn't completely agree with you and want to seal themselves in a cave and not come out until a vaccine is ready. That is your choice to do that. Seal yourself in. Many of the rest of us are ready to get back to normal life and would rather "take the risk". Keep yourself sealed in - and people who feel they are at risk - stay in hiding. The opening of businesses and regular life that you are so against does not affect you because you are hunkering down until there is a vaccine or the virus goes away through herd immunity. So my going out won't affect you at all. In fact you should want people to all go out while you don't and then the 60-70% herd immunity will happen for you. Maybe you are the one who is selfish, not the ones willing to "take a chance" and who want to get the economic engine of this country running again. Militant? Strong willed is more like it. I'm not being selfish by understanding the nature of the virus, understanding that it's a killer, and not wanting to be one who'd infect someone else with it. When you're taking that risk, you're not just taking that risk for yourself. You are taking that risk for everyone down the line who you'd infect. Remember that. I do notice though that no one ever directly answers the question about what lives are worth.