Ivan thread

[RushRevisited]

QUOTE (Indica @ Sep 14 2004, 12:06 PM)

My guess is that Mobile Alabama is going to get crushed, especially if it hits land in mid day when it's the strongest.

I'm going to predict landfall-eye at New Orleans.

[Afterglow]

 

Man that thing is nasty looking... I live in Houston, and I keep saying 'and how do they know for sure that it's not coming this way?'. Even under the best of circumstances, weather can be unpredictable.

 

Batten down the hatches, GG!

[Indica]

I have a couple of weird questions.

 

Is it a huge difference as far as damage if the hurricane hits during low or high tide?

 

They say Ivan is headed toward the mouth of the Mississippi river, if a hurricane hits the mouth of the river head on will it push the river back and make it flood up river?

[Afterglow]

Normal tidal activity in the Gulf is on the order of a few feet, I believe. Depending on the storm surge, this may or may not raise the storm tide to a dangerous level. The problem with New Orleans is that is sits below sea level, so this kind of thing is always monitored there very closely and I believe the city even has levees and dams to protect against moderate storm tides. A direct hit by a major hurricane would probably defeat these measures, though.

 

I'm certainly no expert on the issue, but I don't think that a hurricane would push the Mississippi back and cause flooding upriver. I think the concern would be down near the mouth and the low-lying areas in the delta. Also, another aspect of that proposition is salt water intrusion - which can kill vegetation. I found this one link to a project:

 

http://www.lacoast.gov/programs/DavisPond/

 

I'm sure you can find a lot of info on the net about that.

 

[Afterglow]

I hope everyone is following this event closely. Here is THE site:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

 

Check out this from the latest discussion:

 

"THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECASTS AFTER

LANDFALL...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL MOVE

VERY SLOWLY OR STALL NEAR OR OVER THE APPALACHIANS IN 4 OR 5

DAYS...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A VERY SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT."

 

OMG!

[neilpeart_gal]

I enjoy how weather guys always call such things an 'event'. Yeah it will be one helluva event if we all drown in a flood!

[RushRevisited]

From APOD today:

 

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0409/ivan_iss.jpg

 

Explanation: Ninety percent of the houses on Grenada were damaged. Such is the destructive force of Hurricane Ivan, already one of the most powerful and destructive hurricanes on record. And the storm will likely make landfall in southern USA tomorrow. Ivan is the currently the third - and largest - hurricane set to strike the US this hurricane season. The swirling eye of Hurricane Ivan was photographed above from the orbiting International Space Station (ISS) on Saturday as the storm's sustained 200 kilometer per hour winds wreaked havoc in the Caribbean. The bad news is that hurricane season in the Atlantic typically lasts until November 30, still over two months away. The more immediate bad news is that tropical storm Jeanne is next in line coming across the mid-Atlantic Ocean and could pass Puerto Rico sometime today.

[RushRevisited]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v323/RushRevisited/Ivan.jpg

[GhostGirl]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W%2BGIF/070303W.gif

 

Looks like it's heading straight for Mobile Bay, and then up I-65 toward central Alabama. We are heading to my parents for the next couple of days, since they have a basement (in case tornados form) and a generator .

 

In my part of the state (central) we have been told to expect sustained winds up to 60-70 mph and up to 12-15 inches of rain...so I hope to be able to keep in touch during these next two days. If not, I'll be back as soon as I can.

 

you guys!

~Michelle

[RushRevisited]

QUOTE (GhostGirl @ Sep 15 2004, 12:58 PM)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W%2BGIF/070303W.gif Looks like it's heading straight for Mobile Bay, and then up I-65 toward central Alabama. We are heading to my parents for the next couple of days, since they have a basement (in case tornados form) and a generator . In my part of the state (central) we have been told to expect sustained winds up to 60-70 mph and up to 12-15 inches of rain...so I hope to be able to keep in touch during these next two days. If not, I'll be back as soon as I can. you guys! ~Michelle

Be careful GG we'll be thinking about you

[The Notorious B.S.G.]

You and yours be SAFE, Michelle!

 

We all you, too! (group hug)

[Relaxed_Jack]

QUOTE (GhostGirl @ Sep 15 2004, 12:58 PM)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W%2BGIF/070303W.gif Looks like it's heading straight for Mobile Bay, and then up I-65 toward central Alabama. We are heading to my parents for the next couple of days, since they have a basement (in case tornados form) and a generator . In my part of the state (central) we have been told to expect sustained winds up to 60-70 mph and up to 12-15 inches of rain...so I hope to be able to keep in touch during these next two days. If not, I'll be back as soon as I can. you guys! ~Michelle

Thoughts and prayers go out to you and all the ABALAMAS.....

[RushRevisited]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v323/RushRevisited/ivan2.jpg

[Indica]

Looks like it's headed right at Mobile. I found myself watching the weather channel and cheering it on by going in the right direction that I picked in the contest like if it was a football game or something and I had to check myself. I stopped and asked myself, am I a bad person for rooting on a hurricane that's probably going to destroy peoples homes? Oh well, I guess it had to hit somewhere or the other, at least I can win a boot. LOL.....Damn I'm bad.

 

 

Anyway I hope everyone is safe down there.

[Jack Aubrey]

QUOTE (Indica @ Sep 15 2004, 10:30 PM)

Looks like it's headed right at Mobile. I found myself watching the weather channel and cheering it on by going in the right direction that I picked in the contest like if it was a football game or something and I had to check myself. I stopped and asked myself, am I a bad person for rooting on a hurricane that's probably going to destroy peoples homes? Oh well, I guess it had to hit somewhere or the other, at least I can win a boot. LOL.....Damn I'm bad.      Anyway I hope everyone is safe down there.

That's why I didn't enter the contest, I'd feel bad if it hit where I predicted it would.

 

(No offense to anyone who did enter, though. I'm just sayin'.)

 

And yes, let's everyone pray hard for those at 'ground zero'.

 

[RushRevisited]

QUOTE (Indica @ Sep 15 2004, 10:30 PM)

Looks like it's headed right at Mobile. I found myself watching the weather channel and cheering it on by going in the right direction that I picked in the contest like if it was a football game or something and I had to check myself. I stopped and asked myself, am I a bad person for rooting on a hurricane that's probably going to destroy peoples homes? Oh well, I guess it had to hit somewhere or the other, at least I can win a boot. LOL.....Damn I'm bad. Anyway I hope everyone is safe down there.

 

Cmon New Orleans!!! Cmon baby!!!

[The Notorious B.S.G.]

This thing is heading straight for Birmingham and our very own RushForum Admin and all around sweetheart, GhostGirl! How dare that terrible Ivan do this! The news reported it would be there midday today with category one, or maybe even cat. two winds.

 

Extra prayers to those folks in Alabama, and our GG and her family!

 

From the AP:

 

QUOTE

Hurricane Ivan Storms Ashore By JAY REEVES, AP GULF SHORES, Ala. (Sept. 16) - Hurricane Ivan slammed ashore early Thursday with winds of 130 mph, packing deadly tornadoes and a powerful punch of waves and rain that threatened to swamp communities from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. For the millions of Gulf Coast residents who were spending a frightening night in shelters and boarded-up homes, the worst could be yet to come: up to 15 inches of rain and a storm surge of up to 16 feet. "Say a prayer, say a prayer, say a prayer, that I'll have some place to go when I leave here,'' evacuee Betty Sigler said in a Mobile shelter, safe from the howling wind and sheets of rain. "We'll see in the morning.'' The storm weakened as it moved inland, with winds of 115 mph about two hours after it hit land. Ivan knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of people, toppled trees and sent street signs hurtling through the night. In Gulf Shores, where the storm's eye blew ashore, the sky had a bright green glow as electrical transformers blew. "We have never seen a hurricane of this size come into Alabama,'' said Gov. Bob Riley, who earlier asked President Bush to declare much of the state a disaster area, a request that was granted. Two people were killed and more than 70 homes were damaged when at least five tornadoes roared through Florida's Bay County. "We have a report from a deputy that it looks like a war zone,'' Bay County sheriff's spokeswoman Ruth Sasser said. Four ailing evacuees - a terminally ill cancer patient, two nursing home patients and a homebound patient - reportedly died after being taken from their storm-threatened south Louisiana homes to safer parts of the state. Max Mayfield, the director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, warned that the misery would spread as Ivan moves across the Southeast in the hours and days ahead. "I hate to think about what's going to happen inland,'' he said. At 5 a.m. EDT, Ivan was centered about 40 miles nortwest of Pensacola, Fla and was moving slightly east of north at 14 mph. A hurricane warning for New Orleans was lifted early Thursday, but one remained in effect from the mouth of the Pearl River to Apalachicola, Fla. Hurricane-force winds extended out 105 miles from the Category 3 storm that earlier killed at least 68 people across the Caribbean. An 11th-hour shift spared New Orleans a direct hit, but Ivan's sheer size could create catastrophic flooding in the bowl-shaped city. Officials warned that the levees and pumping stations that normally hold back the water may not be enough to protect the Big Easy, which is nestled mostly below sea level. At least 200,000 homes and businesses were without power in Alabama, 36,500 in Louisiana, 45,000 in Mississippi and 21,000 across northern Florida, a state still trying to restore power to more than 100,000 hit by Hurricanes Charley and Frances in recent weeks.   Ivan's waves - some up to 25 feet - destroyed homes along the Florida coast Wednesday. Twelve-foot waves boomed ashore at Gulf Shores, eroding the beach. A buoy about 300 miles south of Panama City registered one wave of 50 feet high. Gulf Shores Mayor David Bodenhamer said streets were flooded and trees and power lines were down everywhere. His home and others along the beachfront road were OK, "But the beach is going to be a mess, a big mess,'' he said. In Mobile, majestic oaks that line the streets swayed in gusting winds as the city of some 200,000 braced for a hurricane expected to be even more destructive than Frederic, which killed five people 25 years ago. New Orleans had scrambled to get people out of harm's way, putting the frail and elderly in the cavernous Louisiana Superdome and urging others to move to higher floors in tall buildings. Of the roughly 2 million who fled the path of the storm, often in bumper-to-bumper caravans on highways turned into one-way evacuation routes, 1.2 million were from greater New Orleans. Thousands of tourists were believed stranded in New Orleans, along with 100,000 mostly inner-city residents without cars. The mayor suggested that they take shelter in buildings taller than two stories. As the storm drew near, streets along Mississippi's Gulf Coast were all but deserted, and miles of homes and businesses, including its 12 floating casinos, were boarded up. Only patrol cars and an occasional luggage-packed car or van could be seen passing Gulfport's "Welcome to the Gulf Coast'' billboard. "In the aftermath, I urge people to be patient, to be persistent in the restoration and rebuilding effort, and to be prayerful,'' Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. "We're not going to be back to normal tomorrow or next week. The damage is likely to be such that it will take many weeks to restore everything, much less rebuild.'' Forecasters said hurricane-force winds could blast the coast for nearly 20 hours. Still, some wouldn't budge. Marja Morgan said she planned to ride out Ivan at her home in Elberta, about 10 miles inland from Gulf Shores. "That house has been there through Camille and Frederic,'' she said. "It'll be there through this.'' At the beach resort of Gulf Shores, storm waters surged over the main seawall, flooding roads and yards. Winds rocked vehicles and pulled metal strips off City Hall, where about 15 workers weathered the storm behind locked doors and hurricane shutters. With winds shaking the building and howling outside, city administrator Tony Rivera tried without luck to get some sleep in the town's concrete vault. "It was too loud even in there,'' he said. The National Weather Service issued a flood watch for as far away as North Carolina, which suffered heavy flooding last week from the remnants of Hurricane Frances. The heavy rain also could trigger mud and rock slides. "We're out of lanterns, we're out of water purification tablets,'' said John Thompson, assistant manager of Black Dome Mountain Sports in Asheville, N.C. "People who didn't prepare for the last storm are preparing for this one.'' More trouble lingered out in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Jeanne could become a hurricane Thursday in the Caribbean as moved westward across the north coast of Puerto Rico. It could be near Florida's east coast as early as the weekend. -------------- Associated Press reporters Mary Foster and Allen G. Breed in New Orleans; David Royse in Apalachicola, Fla.; Shelia Hardwell Byrd in Gulfport, Miss.; Garry Mitchell and Pauline Arrillaga in Mobile, Ala.; and Bill Kaczor in Pensacola, Fla., contributed to this report. 09/16/04 05:22 EDT

 

[GhostGirl]

Hello, folks...just letting you know things are okay here, but the winds are picking up...sustained at around 40 mph now, and Ivan isn't even fully here yet. Power is blinking on and off...staying off longer now, but the phone lines are still up (for now ).

 

It looks like Gulf Shores got hit pretty hard...it's going to be awful to see those beaches in such bad shape. I've spent lots of summers there and in Panama City.

 

Anyway...just wanted to check in, since I'm not sure how much longer the phone lines might be up. The pecan trees in my parents' yard are getting whipped around furiously, and the rain is coming down in sheets. We had to move away from their big picture window because one of the biggest trees was leaning over and tapping the window quite forcefully.

 

Thanks for all the good thoughts! GG and family are doing okay . See you guys soon!

 

to everyone!

~Michelle

[The Notorious B.S.G.]

QUOTE (GhostGirl @ Sep 16 2004, 10:53 AM)

Hello, folks...just letting you know things are okay here, but the winds are picking up...sustained at around 40 mph now, and Ivan isn't even fully here yet. Power is blinking on and off...staying off longer now, but the phone lines are still up (for now ). It looks like Gulf Shores got hit pretty hard...it's going to be awful to see those beaches in such bad shape. I've spent lots of summers there and in Panama City. Anyway...just wanted to check in, since I'm not sure how much longer the phone lines might be up. The pecan trees in my parents' yard are getting whipped around furiously, and the rain is coming down in sheets. We had to move away from their big picture window because one of the biggest trees was leaning over and tapping the window quite forcefully. Thanks for all the good thoughts! GG and family are doing okay . See you guys soon! to everyone! ~Michelle

Be SAFE, Girl!

[Jack Aubrey]

QUOTE (BSG @ Sep 16 2004, 11:40 AM)

QUOTE (GhostGirl @ Sep 16 2004, 10:53 AM) Hello, folks...just letting you know things are okay here, but the winds are picking up...sustained at around 40 mph now, and Ivan isn't even fully here yet.  Power is blinking on and off...staying off longer now, but the phone lines are still up (for now ). It looks like Gulf Shores got hit pretty hard...it's going to be awful to see those beaches in such bad shape.  I've spent lots of summers there and in Panama City. Anyway...just wanted to check in, since I'm not sure how much longer the phone lines might be up.  The pecan trees in my parents' yard are getting whipped around furiously, and the rain is coming down in sheets.  We had to move away from their big picture window because one of the biggest trees was leaning over and tapping the window quite forcefully. Thanks for all the good thoughts!  GG and family are doing okay .  See you guys soon!   to everyone! ~Michelle Be SAFE, Girl! Yes, please!

[Indica]

QUOTE (BSG @ Sep 16 2004, 10:40 AM)

QUOTE (GhostGirl @ Sep 16 2004, 10:53 AM) Hello, folks...just letting you know things are okay here, but the winds are picking up...sustained at around 40 mph now, and Ivan isn't even fully here yet.  Power is blinking on and off...staying off longer now, but the phone lines are still up (for now ). It looks like Gulf Shores got hit pretty hard...it's going to be awful to see those beaches in such bad shape.  I've spent lots of summers there and in Panama City. Anyway...just wanted to check in, since I'm not sure how much longer the phone lines might be up.  The pecan trees in my parents' yard are getting whipped around furiously, and the rain is coming down in sheets.  We had to move away from their big picture window because one of the biggest trees was leaning over and tapping the window quite forcefully. Thanks for all the good thoughts!  GG and family are doing okay .  See you guys soon!   to everyone! ~Michelle Be SAFE, Girl! Cool sig BSG

[The Notorious B.S.G.]

[neilpeart_gal]

Has been raining here most of today which is supposed to continue on through tomorrow. I may need a boat to get to work.

[D-13]

QUOTE (BSG @ Sep 16 2004, 08:40 AM)

QUOTE (GhostGirl @ Sep 16 2004, 10:53 AM) Hello, folks...just letting you know things are okay here, but the winds are picking up...sustained at around 40 mph now, and Ivan isn't even fully here yet.  Power is blinking on and off...staying off longer now, but the phone lines are still up (for now ). It looks like Gulf Shores got hit pretty hard...it's going to be awful to see those beaches in such bad shape.  I've spent lots of summers there and in Panama City. Anyway...just wanted to check in, since I'm not sure how much longer the phone lines might be up.  The pecan trees in my parents' yard are getting whipped around furiously, and the rain is coming down in sheets.  We had to move away from their big picture window because one of the biggest trees was leaning over and tapping the window quite forcefully. Thanks for all the good thoughts!  GG and family are doing okay .  See you guys soon!   to everyone! ~Michelle Be SAFE, Girl! Hope your safe lady!

[The Notorious B.S.G.]

Electricity out for about 1.2 million. From The Birmingham News:

 

QUOTE

Ivan sweeps away power of 1.2 million Friday, September 17, 2004 JEFF HANSEN News staff writer The powerful center of Ivan hit Alabama and moved north through the state Thursday. But its killing winds came ashore in Florida. Through Thursday evening, Alabama had no deaths or serious injuries after Ivan pounded into Gulf Shores at 2 a.m. and then maintained hurricane force winds all the way to Wilcox or Dallas counties, officials said. In nearby states, at least 20 people died because of Ivan. The winds killed at least 13 in the Florida Panhandle as Ivan hit the coast with spin-off tornadoes. The death toll also included one in Georgia, two in Mississippi and four in Louisiana. That put Ivan's death toll at an estimated 90 - 20 people in the United States and 70 in the Caribbean. President Bush is planning to visit Florida and Alabama on Sunday to tour Ivan's damage. The hurricane's major blow to Alabama as it moved inland Thursday was downed power lines that left 1,175,000 businesses and homes without power by 5 p.m. On the coast, damage was far worse, especially on Pleasure Island, which is lined with condominium towers at one end and homes worth up to $2 million on the other. In the island's main town, Gulf Shores, water from a lagoon flowed over the main road and merged with Gulf waters pushed ashore by Ivan. Popular restaurants and shops were submerged about halfway. "It'll take two days for it to go down," said city employee Eddie Parker. "It's going to be a long, long time before this place is back to normal." Not far away, workers at the Alabama Gulf Coast Zoo killed a small alligator that had escaped from a flooded pond. Condo buildings - all built since the destructive Hurricane Frederic came through in 1979 - were still visible in the distance and so were many homes. But there also were gaping holes where houses used to stand on the western end of the island, near where the eye wall of Hurricane Ivan passed. Injuries were minimal because most residents obeyed state evacuation orders. Police Chief Arthur Bourne said residents wouldn't be allowed back on the island before Saturday, and some areas may not be accessible before next week. "Who knows what the damage is going to be like?" he said. Mayor David Bodenhamer said officials will begin to gauge the destruction after the floods recede. Bodenhamer rode out the storm at City Hall, which lost part of its roof. The city fire station also was damaged. At noon Thursday, Alabama 59, or Gulf Shores Parkway, was flooded from near the zoo south to the old beach front, a distance of about a mile. The deep water stopped a National Guard Humvee carrying Leigh Anne Ryals, emergency management director for Baldwin County, and state Sen. Bradley Byrne, R-Fairhope. Byrne guessed that 15 feet of water still covered Gulf Shores at the intersection of Alabama 59 and Alabama 182, the beach road that runs from Gulf Shores to Orange Beach and the Florida border. Byrne and Ryals said that damage to buildings was heavy along Alabama 182 from Orange Beach to the Florida border. ``The majority of the condos and single homes, rental homes ... I just can't express the devastation that's there," Ryals said. ``Almost every single condo or hotel (or) rental unit had some extensive damage." Nearly every Pleasure Island building on the beach side of Alabama 182, and about three-quarters of those on the north side of the highway, were damaged by Ivan, Ryals said. Most of Alabama 182 east of the Perdido Pass bridge was washed away. In some places, three lanes were washed away. In others, all lanes had vanished. Byrne also said that houses on Ono Island "suffered pretty extensive damage." `Jesus Loves Me': Those who stayed near the coast as Ivan struck Thursday told of terrifying winds in the wee hours of the morning. "It was hell," said Tonja Elberfeld, who rode out the storm at a motel 10 miles from the beach. "It beat and it banged ... We were crying and singing `Jesus Loves Me' just to stop the noise. I thought we were gone." With a terrifying crash just ahead of the storm's eye, part of the roof blew off the motel where Elberfeld and dozens more sought refuge. "The rain was going sideways. You could hear metal bending," said Deb Hardwick, who also stayed at the motel in Baldwin County. Farther east, in Pensacola, Fla., Kristi Moize, 38, stood staring at the destruction at the Palm Court Inn and Suites. The hotel office was caved in under a twisted heap of vinyl siding and wood. Moize said she rode out the storm with her two teenage children in her hotel room, which has been her home since a recent move from North Carolina. "You could hear this big boom sound. We heard it three times," said her 17-year-old daughter, Tabitha. Closer to Mobile, Bruce Baughman, director of the state Emergency Management Agency, said buildings all over Dauphin Island suffered ``extensive damage," especially on the west side of the island and that sand blocked roads across the island. In Pensacola, part of the Interstate 10 bridge washed away. Out in the Gulf of Mexico, five offshore oil rigs were set adrift. In Alabama, away from the coast, and hundreds of miles to the north, counties across the state Thursday reported roof damage, trees down on power lines and debris blocking roads, Baughman said. This left much of the state dark Thursday night. In the Mobile area, 90 percent of Alabama Power's customers had no power at 5 p.m. Thursday, said Keith Karst, the Montgomery area manager for Alabama Power Co. There was also no power for 83 percent of Alabama Power's metro Montgomery customers and for 60 percent of customers in metro Birmingham, Karst said. Full restoration of electricity may be slow. "Two or more weeks would not be a stretch," he said. Alabama Power's priorities will be restoring power to hospitals, water and sewage treatment plants, police, fire departments and "other essential services in the community" Karst said. U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby is traveling today with Gov. Bob Riley and other Republican state and federal officials to see Ivan's aftermath on the Gulf Coast. But after looking at pictures, Shelby said federal money will be needed for emergency road repair in south Alabama. Riley said flooding likely would have been much worse in south Alabama except that Ivan veered to the east just before it made landfall, hitting around Gulf Shores instead of plowing straight up Mobile Bay. "If it had gone up the bay, flooding would have been much more extensive," Riley said. ``It just jogged right, right before it went on shore." "When it turned, it basically pulled water back out of the bay. If it had gone in, it would have pushed the water in," he said. jhansen@bhamnews.com New staff writers David White, Mary Orndorff, and the Associated Press contributed to this report.