SUCK IT ANALYTICS NERDS!!!!

[edhunter]

There can be zero debate among rational people that the overuse of analytics has destroyed the actual game of baseball and is working its way through basketball and hockey as well. Today, the patron saint of all the dweebs that follow this stuff has defected to the side of sanity. 
 

Bill James has had enough….
 

https://nypost.com/2024/07/02/sports/bill-james-godfather-of-sabermetrics-blasts-computer-guys/Favorite

[laughedatbytime]

1 hour ago, edhunter said:

There can be zero debate among rational people that the overuse of analytics has destroyed the actual game of baseball and is working its way through basketball and hockey as well. Today, the patron saint of all the dweebs that follow this stuff has defected to the side of sanity. 
 

Bill James has had enough….
 

https://nypost.com/2024/07/02/sports/bill-james-godfather-of-sabermetrics-blasts-computer-guys/Favorite

Link doesn't work.

[edhunter]

12 minutes ago, laughedatbytime said:

Link doesn't work.

Sorry. Try this one….

 

hang on…

this isn’t exactly it, but it’s a series of his Twitter posts

 

https://x.com/billjamesonline/status/1808157212306559034?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

 

 

Edited July 3, 2024 by edhunter

[laughedatbytime]

This work?

 

https://nypost.com/2024/07/02/sports/bill-james-godfather-of-sabermetrics-blasts-computer-guys/

[laughedatbytime]

2 minutes ago, laughedatbytime said:

This work?

 

https://nypost.com/2024/07/02/sports/bill-james-godfather-of-sabermetrics-blasts-computer-guys/

The tweets are actually more informative than the article as to his thought process.

[laughedatbytime]

I agree with James, in a way.  Part of the appeal of what he did was to focus on these questions and answer them with a data driven approach.

 

But what he was looking to do while sufficient to have a deeper understanding and appreciation of the game is insufficient to optimize winning; this is what the more sophisticated analysis accomplishes and it is what front offices are charged with (nor are bringing the best aesthetics to the game).  To the extent the sport itself wants better aesthetics, it is incumbent on the league(s) to make that happen through incentivizing the things that accomplish that, not those trying to win championships.

 

Please note that the random element of the nature of the game outweighs what can be done to gain advantages... it increases the odds but does not create anything anywhere near certainty; there are ways way too many variables, and way too much randomness for that.

[Principled Man]

Quote

“The vast proliferation of (and fascination with) small measurements (exit velocity, pitch counts, pitch movement, launch angle, etc.) represents not the success of sabermetrics, but its failure. We have fallen back into details. It is like our clothes have been caught in the machinery.“

 

Some of these stats may be interesting (especially exit velocity), but to me, they are not necessarily important to game strategy.  

 

I'd much rather have William Contreras hit away and slap a single to short right field and drive in two than crush the ball straight at the left fielder and score no one.  Give me that wimpy hit every day, William!    

 

[Just now] Christian Yelich jacks one out at 112 mph.....

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2024 by Principled Man

[laughedatbytime]

4 minutes ago, Principled Man said:

 

Some of these stats may be interesting (especially exit velocity), but to me, they are not necessarily important to game strategy.  

 

I'd much rather have William Contreras hit away and slap a single to short right field and drive in two than crush the ball straight at the left fielder and score no one.  Give me that wimpy hit every day, William!    

 

[Just now] Christian Yelich jacks one out at 112 mph.....

 

 

 

Exit velocity though, when combined with launch angle, produces xwOBA, which is more predictive of future offensive performance than mere batting average.  

[Principled Man]

12 minutes ago, laughedatbytime said:

Exit velocity though, when combined with launch angle, produces xwOBA, which is more predictive of future offensive performance than mere batting average.  

 

I'll take your word for it..... 

[edhunter]

2 hours ago, Principled Man said:

 

Some of these stats may be interesting (especially exit velocity), but to me, they are not necessarily important to game strategy.  

 

I'd much rather have William Contreras hit away and slap a single to short right field and drive in two than crush the ball straight at the left fielder and score no one.  Give me that wimpy hit every day, William!    

 

[Just now] Christian Yelich jacks one out at 112 mph.....

 

 

 

Before the shift was banned, nothing drove me more nuts than seeing three infielders on the right side and a wide open hole on the left, and the idiot hitter still grounded to the deep second baseman. To hear stat nerds say that guys like Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew and Ichiro did more harm than good is jaw dropping. 

[laughedatbytime]

1 hour ago, edhunter said:

Before the shift was banned, nothing drove me more nuts than seeing three infielders on the right side and a wide open hole on the left, and the idiot hitter still grounded to the deep second baseman. To hear stat nerds say that guys like Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew and Ichiro did more harm than good is jaw dropping. 

Sounds like something that never happened.

[edhunter]

7 hours ago, laughedatbytime said:

Sounds like something that never happened.

OMG. I could post hour after hour of videos of hitters hitting directly into the shift. And I could post Reddit threads of people bashing the hitters I mentioned because their launch angle and exit velocity did not produce enough home runs, and they were overrated and inefficient hitters, despite having an above average WAR or BABIP. The year Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown, one the of the morning shows on ESPN spent a whole show debating between Pablo Torres and some other guy that Cabrera shouldn’t have even been in the top 5 for the MVP voting, let alone winning it. 
 

 

Yeah. It happened. 
 

Here’s a rabbit hole for you. Google any of the following with “overrated” after it. Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, Pete Rose, Ichiro, Derek Jeter, Miguel Cabrera. Enjoy your 4th. I’m going golfing. 

Edited July 4, 2024 by edhunter

[laughedatbytime]

Enjoy your round...

 

Not watching the morning shows on ESPN is a good start.

 

I'll be back with the rest of my comment later.

[laughedatbytime]

It's hard to hit a baseball, let alone to a certain place.   So, yeah, there are going to be lots of videos of hitters hitting into the shift.  (Not to mention enough ABs for there to be hours of this...given the resources and interest in doing so, I'm sure I could put together hours of videos of Gwynn, Rose, etc. grounding out.)

 

There's a huge difference between doing more harm than good and being overrated.   With all of the players you listed I would disagree with the statement they did more harm than good, vehemently.   I would argue that most of them are overrated, though still great players.    Gwynn, Rose, and Jeter were overrated, Ichiro and Cabrera not so much.    Rose, toward the end of his career was unplayable to any manager not named Pete Rose, Gwynn in his later years could still hit but was a station to station guy and defensive liability...and for his career he was a great player but not among the pantheon of the best ever, and Jeter was a great hitter, though a bit overrated but probably had the most negative value of any fielder ever, despite a few truly great players at incredibly key points.    Much of Ichiro's value was not bound up in his hitting but baserunning and fielding so I wouldn't call him overrated, except by those who feel he should have 100% of the HoF vote (unless you're going to argue that retroactively there were about 50 other players deserving of that).     I don't see how anybody could say that Cabrera was not a top 50, maybe 25 hitter all time though that made up about 110% of his value.

 

As for Reddit threads, every position is bound to have stupid takes, both those who rely on traditional stats and those who rely on new information, and not everyone takingeither position would agree internally     If you're able, please send me one of the threads so I can see these arguments (I don't expect you to take the time but it would be nice if you could) and pick them apart if possible.    Many people, as per James, lose the forest for the trees, but actually valuable insights will variably emerge; it's just a matter of separating the wheat from the chaff.

 

Finally, the ESPN morning shows in the Embrace Debate era and after are cesspools of ignorance (even worse than Boston/Philly/NY talk radio) and should never be used in an argument except as a source of ridicule.   Even the people who might actually know something are not going to let it slip on one of those shows.