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THE ONLY SPAM THREAD v.25


That One Guy
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  1. 1. When did TRF chatroom get taken down?

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If Trump wins, I’d appreciate if he f***ed off on his threats to try and gut EV adoption incentives. 
 

Hate China? Don’t let China control all the batteries for nearly every vehicle moving forward. EVs aren’t a fad. You don’t want China controlling them all in 2035. We do not want to be dependent on China for such widespread transportation devices. 

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I can’t handle trump tax cuts round two

 

quit f***ing over the poor and so-called middle class holy shit 

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Convince the poor that those even poorer than them are the problem by being rich and introducing an effectively meaningless term called “middle class”

 

An amazing dodge

 

dear dude with two cookies: don’t look at my 500 cookies. The guy next to you with one cookie is coming for your cookies, I promise!

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8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Convince the poor that those even poorer than them are the problem by being rich and introducing an effectively meaningless term called “middle class”

 

An amazing dodge

 

dear dude with two cookies: don’t look at my 500 cookies. The guy next to you with one cookie is coming for your cookies, I promise!

It's almost impossible to convince people they're in a cult. 

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15 minutes ago, BastillePark said:

It's almost impossible to convince people they're in a cult. 

Too bad you have no idea what a cult is.  Hint: it doesn't mean a group of people who disagree with you.

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37 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I can’t handle trump tax cuts round two

 

quit f***ing over the poor and so-called middle class holy shit 

You mean like no taxes on tips?

 

I get that it could mean less money for choo choo trains but I'm confused how that "f***s over the poor".

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1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

If Trump wins, I’d appreciate if he f***ed off on his threats to try and gut EV adoption incentives. 
 

Hate China? Don’t let China control all the batteries for nearly every vehicle moving forward. EVs aren’t a fad. You don’t want China controlling them all in 2035. We do not want to be dependent on China for such widespread transportation devices. 

Let's assume full adoption in ten years.  What's the solution to the power grid dilemma?

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, goose said:

Let's assume full adoption in ten years.  What's the solution to the power grid dilemma?

We won't have full adoption in ten years, it's not a useful scenario to analyze unless a strawman really needs to be built up. There is such a thing as "adopting too fast", as there is "adopting too slow". Don't forget used cars. There's millions of 20+ year old vehicles driving around the country. It takes a long time to slowly lose the existing gasoline fleet to repairs, rust, and crashes.

 

The "I think the grid can't take it" thing comes from people who don't work for power authorities. Most power authorities are upgrading at a rate totally compatible with the rate of adoption of EVs. Those handful that are struggling worse than that could be helped out.

 

EVs are less jarring to the grid than the many decades old advancement of widespread building air conditioning. The vast majority of EV charging is slow, low voltage, low wattage overnight charging (which grids actually LOVE, btw); only a fraction of EV charging is high voltage high wattage DC fast charging. The sky is not falling.

 

This all ignores large vehicles by the way. We won't live to see the day where the government demands that 6000+ lb gvwr trucks are required to get off gasoline and diesel. We don't even require them to post fuel economy numbers as it stands. Lobbying to get them considered "infrastructure vehicles" was successful decades ago.

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5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

We won't have full adoption in ten years, it's not a useful scenario to analyze unless a strawman really needs to be built up. There is such a thing as "adopting too fast", as there is "adopting too slow". Don't forget used cars. There's millions of 20+ year old vehicles driving around the country. It takes a long time to slowly lose the existing gasoline fleet to repairs, rust, and crashes.

 

The "I think the grid can't take it" thing comes from people who don't work for power authorities. Most power authorities are upgrading at a rate totally compatible with the rate of adoption of EVs. Those handful that are struggling worse than that could be helped out.

 

EVs are less jarring to the grid than the many decades old advancement of widespread building air conditioning. The vast majority of EV charging is slow, low voltage, low wattage overnight charging (which grids actually LOVE, btw); only a fraction of EV charging is high voltage high wattage DC fast charging. The sky is not falling.

 

This all ignores large vehicles by the way. We won't live to see the day where the government demands that 6000+ lb gvwr trucks are required to get off gasoline and diesel. We don't even require them to post fuel economy numbers as it stands. Lobbying to get them considered "infrastructure vehicles" was successful decades ago.

I'm not sure you answered my question.  Power is hardly a strawman.  Power supply and cost are core questions that should be answerable at this point,  imo.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, goose said:

I'm not sure you answered my question.  Power is hardly a strawman.  Power supply and cost are core questions that should be answerable at this point,  imo.

I always go long on EV discussions; there is so much completely fraudulent information that travels far related to it, and many people are curious and looking for clarifications.

 

Like I said, I consider "what if we fully adopted EVs in 10 years" an unrealistic and legitimately near-impossible scenario that doesn't need to be entertained. The average car lasts more than 10 years in this country. If we somehow got every car factory churning out 100% EVs right now, it would still be unrealistic to think the remaining gasoline/diesel vehicle fleet would get off the road in 10 years time. There's still tons of 90s/00s cars driving around, many millions. The fleet is maybe turning 1-3% more electric every year, loosely speaking. The latest administration goal (and that's a toothless "goal", not any kind of "mandate") is what, 50% cars sold are EVs by 2035? That would make the total fleet-on-the-road well under 50% at that time. Still a pretty slow transition, and that goal is not likely to get met, they're just for back-pattery.

 

Most grids are totally fine for the slow electrification of vehicles, and they're upgrading at rates ahead of electrification. It's a non-issue for 95% of them. Stragglers like California and Texas need to sort their shit out, indeed. I read that the former is continuously working on it (eye-gouging expensive) and the latter is near-incompetently managed (how many avoidable deaths was that 2/3 winters ago?). Frankly, if charging an EV was unreliable in California, they wouldn't be 25% of new vehicle sales there. I know through firsthand information that my local grid operator, RMP, embraces EVs and is not worried about the grid load. They actually LIKE them because most charging happens overnight, which gets the night load closer to the daytime load, and the more consistent the grid load is, the cheaper they can make power for everyone. Stepping up and down grid output every day is a big cost, using things like gas peaker plants. They appear to be walking the walk, because they're literally building RMP-owned EV chargers outside of the federal funding, just because they want to.

 

Power supply is regional. Utah is 50% coal and dropping (75% seven short years ago). Some regions enjoy 90% clean hydro power. Renewables get more viable and economical every year (we've got big solar farms going up here in Utah). It pisses me off that nuclear continues to be ignored. Utah has been trying to build a new Green River nuclear power plant for a decade and it's still nowhere.

 

I love decarbonizing the grid and private vehicles. I love getting vehicles off gasoline, because it gets us off OPEC oil. Energy independence is very American, I don't want to give Kuwait $2,000 a year, f**k that. And I like the US getting on board with battery manufacturing plants here. We do NOT want to be utterly dependent on China for economical cars in 15 years, that's a horrible endgame.

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I think we've come to a decision on the Fiat 500e. The launch models are too expensive for what you get, and don't have quite enough flair. Europe gets Abarth and cabriolet versions. We will wait until either or both of those are offered here. And maybe by then some better alternative will exist.

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Sammy Hagar seems like a good frontman for Van Halen

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So, we're looking at a fifty year transition, which seems reasonable.  Costs will need to drop significantly during that time, and road infrastructure will need to change.  To me it seems that widespread e-vehicle use makes most sense in densely populated areas, with smaller micro-sized vehicles navigating surface roads rather than mega-highways.  The greater Phoenix area should have been fully designed around this kind of model.  

 

 

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8 minutes ago, goose said:

So, we're looking at a fifty year transition, which seems reasonable.  Costs will need to drop significantly during that time, and road infrastructure will need to change.  To me it seems that widespread e-vehicle use makes most sense in densely populated areas, with smaller micro-sized vehicles navigating surface roads rather than mega-highways.  The greater Phoenix area should have been fully designed around this kind of model.  

 

 

EV has gone way past niche concept cars. It’s time to let the free market take over. 

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8 minutes ago, JohnRogers said:

EV has gone way past niche concept cars. It’s time to let the free market take over. 

Agreed.  

 

These seem like the future to me, from Wink Motorsmark_2_red_1200x.png?v=1672077977

 

 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, goose said:

Phoenix should be sprawling with these...   https://www.gemcar.com/street-legal-carts/

Yes.

 

Federally, if it can't go more than 25mph, you can basically sell any cobbled together thing. 30mph might be a nicer max to let it be a little more viable as a suburban runabout.

 

Manufacturers have to do so much to get a 2024 Corolla street legal that they can't really sell them under $22k. And getting a microcar smaller than that to pass crash tests is prohibitively expensive.

 

Europe and China are more lax on standards for small cars, which is why they have lots of them, for cheap.

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12 minutes ago, JohnRogers said:

EV has gone way past niche concept cars. It’s time to let the free market take over. 

If it existed in a vacuum, I'd agree. But I don't quite yet, because it doesn't.

 

The tax credit is encouraging lots of manufacturers to set up battery manufacturing here. This is good for long-term stability and to not have china dependency. China is engaging in anticompetitive practices, subsidizing their EV makers, and having them flood other markets with EVs cheaper than other makers can possibly pull off. Letting them kill off competition and creating a world that depends on cheap china cars is dangerous.

 

I'm ok with tax credits sticking around a few (like, 3) more years to get the most stateside vehicle/battery manufacturing possible set up here before we finally kick off the training wheels. I also think it'd be more fair to wean off the credit, not just kill it once day. Frankly I think $3,750/$7,500 is too high at the current stage. They should be more like $2,500/$5,000, and drop to $1,500/$3,000 in a couple years.

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Fisker declared bankruptcy and some U.S. oil and corn industry lobby groups are suing the Biden administration over the newest plan to reduce emissions on cars and light trucks. Those emissions have been reduced by more than 90% since that process started in the 70's but the environmental wackos always want more.

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