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NASCAR championship battle.


KenJennings
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I'm looking at the twelve remaining drivers in the Chase for the cup, and trying to break down this asinine new system...

 

We've got one more race at Talladega before the top-8, or anyone with a win in this segment, is locked in; and 9th-12th are eliminated.

 

Logano - Locked into round 3.

Harvick - Locked into round 3.

----

Ky Busch

Newman

Edwards

Gordon

Hamlin

Kahne

----

Kenseth - 1 point behind 8th

Keselowski - 19 points behind 8th

Johnson - 26 points behind 8th

Dale Jr. - 26 points behind 8th

 

Since it is Talladega, I can't count Dale Jr. out. But he needs to win if he wants to advance. Getting through on points is a near impossibility for him. Same situation for Johnson. It is a statistical near-certainty that two of of the three- Johnson, Keselowski and Dale Jr.- will be eliminated.

 

Kenseth could still race his way in pretty easily, which threatens Kasey Kahne. The lowest finishing of Hamlin, Gordon, Edwards, and Newman could feasibly fall out, but are likely pretty safe, as the stars would have to align strongly against them.

 

I'm going to go out on a limb, and call Dale Jr. the favorite for Talladega. If he makes it- then Johnson, Keselowski, Kenseth and Kahne are in danger.

 

This would leave:

 

Logano

Harvick

Dale Jr.

Ky Busch

Newman

Edwards

Gordon

Hamlin

 

As the round 3 chasers. Round three consists of Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix.

 

Martinsville would be a good opportunity for Gordon, Hamlin and Dale Jr to win.

Texas would be a good opportunity for Logano, Gordon, and Harvick.

Phoenix would be a good opportunity for Harvick, Edwards, and Newman.

 

So I predict that Gordon wins Martinsville. Logano wins Texas. Harvick wins Phoenix. And Newman makes the cut on points as the total underdog.

 

Ideal scenario- None of the chasers get the win at Homestead. Newman finishes 2nd or 3rd to ineligible drivers, winning the title without ever winning a race. Shove it, France.

 

My real prediction, Harvick and Gordon race for the win at Homestead, with Harvick failing to close, and Gordon taking home title #5. Logano chokes under pressure, and his inconsistency catches him at an inopportune time. Newman runs about 5th in the finale, finishing 2rd overall without a win.

 

Final standings prediction:

1. Gordon

2. Newman

3. Harvick

4. Logano

5. Hamlin

6. Ky Busch

7. Edwards

8. Dale Jr.

9. Johnson

10. Keselowski

11. Kenseth

12. Kahne

Edited by KenJennings
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Next week all it takes is one wreck and Jr, Johnson and Keselowski have spots in the chase. Anything can happen. But chances are with the way Keselowski has been driving recently, he's likely to be the one causing the big wreck. Edited by Cygnus 2112
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All it takes is one wreck with Gordon to Kenseth taken out and Johnson and Junior finishing top 5. It's Talladega, anything is possible.

 

Jr and Johnson would both need to finish top three to have any chance.

 

IF Jr. or Johnson wins, and the other finishes second after leading the most laps (best case scenario); you'd ALSO need four of these five three things to happen: Gordon finishes 42nd or worse, Hamlin finishes 41st or worse, Kenseth finishes 25th or worse, Kahne finishes 24th or worse, and Keselowski finishes 6th or worse.

 

That is what it will take to get Johnson and Jr into the chase.

 

Possible... but extremely long odds.

Edited by KenJennings
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This qualifying format at the superspeedways (well, everywhere, but especially the superspeedways) sucks donkeys. Harvick is right.

 

TALLADEGA, Ala. — NASCAR tried to change the qualifying format at Talladega Superspeedway to avoid the silliness of fans sitting there watching a bunch of cars waiting for the final few minutes to draft.

 

Instead, they saw less silliness. Except for what some would view as silly results.

 

 

No one was complaining that Brian Vickers and Jimmie Johnson earned the front row for the Geico 500, but two top-30 full-time drivers, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Justin Allgaier, missed the race as they didn’t pick up good drafts in their first-round qualifying groups.

 

“It’s not very fun,” Stenhouse said. “I do not like the format. It wasn’t very good. … It is a lot of confusion.

 

“It’s not going to be good (to miss). I guess I’m going to watch it. That’s the thing with this, it’s just crazy and nobody knows exactly how it is going to work out or how it’s going to play out.”

 

Stenhouse and Allgaier missed the race because they couldn’t get lined up in their groups to get a fast drafting time in their initial qualifying session, combined with several drivers ahead of them in points having the same fate.

 

With the top-36 speeds from the first qualifying session being locked in, the next six spots were based on owner points and then the final spot goes to a past champion or another driver based on owner points.

 

Joey Logano (first in owner points), Kyle Busch (second), Kevin Harvick (third), Jeff Gordon (sixth), Denny Hamlin (seventh) and Kyle Larson (17th) and Tony Stewart (25th) got in on owner points (Stewart could have used a past champion provisional, if necessary) because they weren’t in the top-36 in speeds after the first session.

 

“This qualifying is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen in my whole life,” said Harvick, who has eight poles this year. “It just doesn’t work on speedways. They all made a plan and told me to be the lead guy, and I took off and nobody took off with me.”

 

With all those top teams in owner points outside the top-36, that left Roush Fenway Racing’s Stenhouse (27th in owner points) and HScott Motorsports’ Allgaier (29th) on the outside looking in and failing to make the race along with Joe Nemechek, whose time was disallowed for an improperly sealed oil tank encasement.

 

To try to force drivers to go out and make laps as well as to make sure team allegiances didn’t dictate who got in and who didn’t, NASCAR opted to split the first session into two, 23-driver groups, based on a random draw. Each group got five minutes to post a time.

 

Confusion reigned after the first session as the time of the session ran out while the middle of the pack of cars drafting crossed the start/finish line. NASCAR had to sort out who was across the line before time ran out — meaning their next lap counted as well — while those who didn’t cross the line didn’t have their laps scored.

 

That’s where Stenhouse made his mistake — he lagged back to be the last in line, hoping to get a good draft on the final run. Instead, he didn’t get scored for his final lap because he was didn’t get to the start-finish line in time.

 

“I thought being the last car in line would be beneficial for us,” Stenhouse said. “We had Jeff Gordon leading the pack there and I thought we would have a good shot at putting a good lap in, but my spotter was telling me, ‘Hey, you have 30 seconds to get across the start-finish line’ as we were entering Turn 3.

 

“I don’t guess the 24 (spotter for Gordon) was giving him a lot of information. He kept slowing the pack down and we didn’t get a good lap and never got across the start-finish line in time.”

 

The final two sessions were more normal with each being five minutes and teams waiting about three minutes before even going out to make runs.

 

Vickers, with a lap of 196.129 mph in the final round, earned the pole with Johnson — who initially was shown as not even having qualified for the second round amid the scoring confusion of whose final lap counted and whose didn’t — turning a lap of 195.732 to earn the outside pole.

 

AJ Allmendinger will start third, while Ryan Blaney will start fourth and Brad Keselowski will start fifth.

 

“We survived,” Keselowski said. “I hope I get a t-shirt out of it. We got through it and that is the most important thing.”

 

Johnson and Keselowski were the top Chase for the Sprint Cup drivers. Kasey Kahne (eighth), Ryan Newman (11th), Matt Kenseth (13th) and Carl Edwards (15th) were the only others in the top-25.

 

The other Chase drivers will start near the rear of the field: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (28th), Denny Hamlin (38th), Kevin Harvick (39th), Joey Logano (40th), Kyle Busch (41st) and Jeff Gordon (43rd).

 

"It's kind of a dumb format, but what can you do?” Hamlin said. “I guess it's supposed to be entertaining, but I don't know.

 

“We just wanted to get a lap in and the object of this is to make sure we start the race with the same car we practiced.”

 

About the only guys who were happy were the ones who will start up front and those so far back in onwers points who were in the right place to make the field.

 

“We had a lot of luck today and the cards fell our way and you can't discount that,” Vickers said.

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/nascar/story/2014-10-18/vickers-wins-pole-in-bizarre-talladega-qualifying-while-stenhouse-misses-race?eadid=SOC%2FFB%2FSNMain

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Joey Logano should be severely penalized for Collusion after that move on the last lap. He sacrificed a 2nd place position in order to block for his teammate, and he ended up finishing 11th because of it.

 

That's not "giving 100%" for your own position, as is mandated by the rules. They kicked Clint Bowyer out of the chase for this last year, and they should kick Joey Logano out of the chase for doing it this year.

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I'm starting to think I've underestimated Hamlin's chances of winning quite a bit. His record at the last four tracks is pretty impressive... and it's arguable that he's the strongest driver in the series at Homestead. Edited by KenJennings
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I'd like to see Newman winning the championship by finishing 23rd at Homestead.

 

Not likely, but it would be poetic justice.

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I'd like to see Newman winning the championship by finishing 23rd at Homestead.

 

Not likely, but it would be poetic justice.

We could have all four chase drivers get caught up in wrecks and have Newman the only car able to return to the tracking. Winning the championship while finishing 35th. Also highly unlikely.

Edited by Cygnus 2112
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Final standings prediction:

1. Gordon

2. Newman

3. Harvick

4. Logano

 

3 out of 4 isn't bad!!

 

Let's go Newman!!!

Newman!

 

No wins

Four top 5s

40 laps led

 

Hope he wins!

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Fly in NASCAR's ointment aside, this Thursday marks the 20th anniversary of RCR's last championship with Dale Earnhardt.

 

It would be very cool to see them take one home with Ryan Newman- someone smart, steady, respectable, and consistent. He's almost like a driver out of Earnhardt's era.

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Dream scenario for Sunday:

 

Newman finishes 20th, but wins the Championship

 

Brian France holds a press conference and announces he has no idea what he's doing, steps down, and is never heard from again.

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F*** Chris Myers. Goddamned douchebag, don't you think that someone might have actually taped the race and didn't want to hear who won? It's bad enough you suck at pre race and studio coverage but now you have to ruin the outcome.
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One less caution, and Ryan Newman would be our champion. Love the run by the 31 team. I hope they take some strong momentum into 2015.

 

But I can't complain about Harvick winning the title. He's a deserved champion. I hate the chase, and this should've been Jeff Gordon's year... but Harvick was robbed of one in 2010 so I guess it shakes out... at least for Harvick.

 

Congratulations to Kevin Harvick on his first title.

Congratulations to Ryan Newman on a stellar runner up performance, showing consistency still counts.

Congratulations to Jeff Gordon for accumulating the most points in a season for the 7th time in his career, matching Petty and Earnhardt.

 

...and lest we not forget how satisfying it was to see Joey Logano bounce off the wall on his own, then to see that jack drop. Love it!

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Congrats Kevin Harvick. That being said, NASCAR sucks giant donkey balls.

 

Screw the entire format, the Chase, and especially this elimnation horses—t. Go back to total points accumulated from all races during the entire season, minus points for infractions (failing a post race inspection, etc) , and just LET 'EM RACE!

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