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Pick 4, 2014


laughedatbytime
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Anyone interested in doing a Pick 4 this year? The premise is simple...pick 4 games against the spread each week of the NFL season.

 

You can't do any worse than RNB and I did last year.

 

RNB was 29-38-1, I was 26-36-3. So there's not much competition.

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I'm doing that other thing, but when it comes to betting and odds I'm a bit of a dunce. :oops:

Yeah, but you could have flipped a coin and run away with it last year.

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I'm in. I suppose that you will set the line and the cut off date for line adjustments?

I'll use the same source I used last year (if I can find it) and try to have it posted Wednesday. If you pick the Thursday game you have to get your pick in by Thursday 6 CDT, other picks will be due Sunday 11 CDT (if there are Saturday games they're due an hour before game time.) I know this allows for taking advantage of some late info/line shifts, but it's too much work otherwise. Hope that's not a problem.

 

I'm open to suggestions though, and anyone who wants to take it over is more than welcome :)

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I'm in. I suppose that you will set the line and the cut off date for line adjustments?

I'll use the same source I used last year (if I can find it) and try to have it posted Wednesday. If you pick the Thursday game you have to get your pick in by Thursday 6 CDT, other picks will be due Sunday 11 CDT (if there are Saturday games they're due an hour before game time.) I know this allows for taking advantage of some late info/line shifts, but it's too much work otherwise. Hope that's not a problem.

 

I'm open to suggestions though, and anyone who wants to take it over is more than welcome :)

You can handle up on it hoss.

 

And yes treeduck, a flip of a coin would probably serve most of us well if playing against the odds.

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The one thing I've learned is that the house is a lot smarter than virtually any individual bettor. The only people that get rich from betting football are in Vegas, or who fool people into thinking they can beat the house. I knew one guy who said he knew someone who worked for one of the touts (so take it for what it's worth), and he had two scripts for each game, one favoring each team and giving reasons why they were the winning side, and alternated reading them by caller. Edited by laughedatbytime
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Anyone interested in doing a Pick 4 this year? The premise is simple...pick 4 games against the spread each week of the NFL season.

 

You can't do any worse than RNB and I did last year.

 

RNB was 29-38-1, I was 26-36-3. So there's not much competition.

 

No kidding. And I got worse as the season went on I think.

 

So of course I'm in.

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The one thing I've learned is that the house is a lot smarter than virtually any individual bettor. The only people that get rich from betting football are in Vegas, or who fool people into thinking they can beat the house. I knew one guy who said he knew someone who worked for one of the touts (so take it for what it's worth), and he had two scripts for each game, one favoring each team and giving reasons why they were the winning side, and alternated reading them by caller.

The problems with the individual are, in no particular order:

 

They're drunk.

They're emotionally tied, in some way, to the teams, either positive or negative.

They have jobs and can't spend all of their time studying the teams.

They're desperate.

 

The 2nd and 3rd reasons are why I do not bet on sports. I can bet on blackjack and craps, because it's all just mathematics to me, but there is too much emotion in sports.

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The one thing I've learned is that the house is a lot smarter than virtually any individual bettor. The only people that get rich from betting football are in Vegas, or who fool people into thinking they can beat the house. I knew one guy who said he knew someone who worked for one of the touts (so take it for what it's worth), and he had two scripts for each game, one favoring each team and giving reasons why they were the winning side, and alternated reading them by caller.

The problems with the individual are, in no particular order:

 

They're drunk.

They're emotionally tied, in some way, to the teams, either positive or negative.

They have jobs and can't spend all of their time studying the teams.

They're desperate.

 

The 2nd and 3rd reasons are why I do not bet on sports. I can bet on blackjack and craps, because it's all just mathematics to me, but there is too much emotion in sports.

There is the human element, which makes it more than pure mathematics. But it's silly to play any type of pure chance game for any extended period of time unless you have some sort of advantage (in which case it makes sense to do nothing else).

 

You're right about most gamblers, but there's really no one (drunk, emotionally invested or not) that has been able to demonstrate that they've been able to sustain a lavish lifestyle on their picks alone (not from selling them to dupes). Of course if I could do it the last thing I would do is share my secrets...so maybe someone has and we just don't know...

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The one thing I've learned is that the house is a lot smarter than virtually any individual bettor. The only people that get rich from betting football are in Vegas, or who fool people into thinking they can beat the house. I knew one guy who said he knew someone who worked for one of the touts (so take it for what it's worth), and he had two scripts for each game, one favoring each team and giving reasons why they were the winning side, and alternated reading them by caller.

The problems with the individual are, in no particular order:

 

They're drunk.

They're emotionally tied, in some way, to the teams, either positive or negative.

They have jobs and can't spend all of their time studying the teams.

They're desperate.

 

The 2nd and 3rd reasons are why I do not bet on sports. I can bet on blackjack and craps, because it's all just mathematics to me, but there is too much emotion in sports.

There is the human element, which makes it more than pure mathematics. But it's silly to play any type of pure chance game for any extended period of time unless you have some sort of advantage (in which case it makes sense to do nothing else).

 

You're right about most gamblers, but there's really no one (drunk, emotionally invested or not) that has been able to demonstrate that they've been able to sustain a lavish lifestyle on their picks alone (not from selling them to dupes). Of course if I could do it the last thing I would do is share my secrets...so maybe someone has and we just don't know...

Exactly. Those guys who sell their picks are taking advantage of the reasons that you and I listed.

 

Also...

 

....if you're really good at picking the games, then Vegas is probably giving you a job as an oddsmaker.

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The one thing I've learned is that the house is a lot smarter than virtually any individual bettor. The only people that get rich from betting football are in Vegas, or who fool people into thinking they can beat the house. I knew one guy who said he knew someone who worked for one of the touts (so take it for what it's worth), and he had two scripts for each game, one favoring each team and giving reasons why they were the winning side, and alternated reading them by caller.

 

I believe it. You need only look at the 2001 and 2007 Patriots for the reason why no one gets rich betting. And, as I've said many times, there's a good reason that the casinos have been able to build palaces in the desert, and it's not because they're losing money to gamblers.

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Anyone interested in doing a Pick 4 this year? The premise is simple...pick 4 games against the spread each week of the NFL season.

 

You can't do any worse than RNB and I did last year.

 

RNB was 29-38-1, I was 26-36-3. So there's not much competition.

I have a hard time caring about football so I bet I could do worse.
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Anyone interested in doing a Pick 4 this year? The premise is simple...pick 4 games against the spread each week of the NFL season.

 

You can't do any worse than RNB and I did last year.

 

RNB was 29-38-1, I was 26-36-3. So there's not much competition.

I have a hard time caring about football so I bet I could do worse.

If you don't care, then over the long haul you'll be at 50%. And the chances are pretty small that by picking at random you'll do worse than 43% over 68 games.

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Anyone interested in doing a Pick 4 this year? The premise is simple...pick 4 games against the spread each week of the NFL season.

 

You can't do any worse than RNB and I did last year.

 

RNB was 29-38-1, I was 26-36-3. So there's not much competition.

I have a hard time caring about football so I bet I could do worse.

If you don't care, then over the long haul you'll be at 50%. And the chances are pretty small that by picking at random you'll do worse than 43% over 68 games.

I would think picking college games would be easier. Heck, it's hard enough to pick the winner of an NFL game, much less try and beat the spread.
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Anyone interested in doing a Pick 4 this year? The premise is simple...pick 4 games against the spread each week of the NFL season.

 

You can't do any worse than RNB and I did last year.

 

RNB was 29-38-1, I was 26-36-3. So there's not much competition.

I have a hard time caring about football so I bet I could do worse.

If you don't care, then over the long haul you'll be at 50%. And the chances are pretty small that by picking at random you'll do worse than 43% over 68 games.

I would think picking college games would be easier. Heck, it's hard enough to pick the winner of an NFL game, much less try and beat the spread.

I've always thought it's slightly easier, but I don't follow it as much. With all of the analytics, I think it's probably just as difficult these days. There is not as much shared experience (meaning there's a larger group of teams to play and therefore less comparability of previous results), but I think the factors like one conference record vs another or even a type of offense (spread vs conventional, etc.) are analyzed so much there's probably not as much opportunity as there has been in the past. Plus the spreads are so much higher when you have mismatches that relative strength of teams is less a factor and what happens after garbage timeb begins is much more a factor than in the pros. Then again, you have the homer/alum factor to an even greater degree. .

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Anyone interested in doing a Pick 4 this year? The premise is simple...pick 4 games against the spread each week of the NFL season.

 

You can't do any worse than RNB and I did last year.

 

RNB was 29-38-1, I was 26-36-3. So there's not much competition.

I have a hard time caring about football so I bet I could do worse.

If you don't care, then over the long haul you'll be at 50%. And the chances are pretty small that by picking at random you'll do worse than 43% over 68 games.

I would think picking college games would be easier. Heck, it's hard enough to pick the winner of an NFL game, much less try and beat the spread.

I've always thought it's slightly easier, but I don't follow it as much. With all of the analytics, I think it's probably just as difficult these days. There is not as much shared experience (meaning there's a larger group of teams to play and therefore less comparability of previous results), but I think the factors like one conference record vs another or even a type of offense (spread vs conventional, etc.) are analyzed so much there's probably not as much opportunity as there has been in the past. Plus the spreads are so much higher when you have mismatches that relative strength of teams is less a factor and what happens after garbage timeb begins is much more a factor than in the pros. Then again, you have the homer/alum factor to an even greater degree. .

This. There are certain teams that play up or down to the team they're facing. There is a lot more parity in college ball, today. I'm not sure, though, what's going to happen with the new playoff system. Just as certain teams could go undefeated and never see a BCS game, certain teams will NEVER see the playoffs, even if they go undefeated. Really, they should have 4 divisions in college ball. But, that's a different debate.

I look at the spread, for funsies, and I often been tempted to do a "parlay" when I've driven through Nevada, but if you ever try to pick these games, on paper, against the spread, you see just how difficult it is. Like you said, it really is hard to even pick half the games right. Hell, I won't be home, but I'll try to pick a few games, on the college thread, right now and we'll see how I did.

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LABT, are you going to be running this game this season out of this thread?

That's the plan. But don't be shy about taking over the duties and creating another thread. :)

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LABT, are you going to be running this game this season out of this thread?

That's the plan. But don't be shy about taking over the duties and creating another thread. :)

 

No way. This is your deal. And if it ends up being just you and me again, so be it. Hopefully a few others will join in this season though.

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LABT, are you going to be running this game this season out of this thread?

That's the plan. But don't be shy about taking over the duties and creating another thread. :)

 

No way. This is your deal. And if it ends up being just you and me again, so be it. Hopefully a few others will join in this season though.

I hope so. But one look at our records from last year and they'll run away thinking there's no way they could compete.

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LABT, are you going to be running this game this season out of this thread?

That's the plan. But don't be shy about taking over the duties and creating another thread. :)

 

No way. This is your deal. And if it ends up being just you and me again, so be it. Hopefully a few others will join in this season though.

I hope so. But one look at our records from last year and they'll run away thinking there's no way they could compete.

 

If you guys think you were bad, just wait until you see how I do at this...

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LABT, are you going to be running this game this season out of this thread?

That's the plan. But don't be shy about taking over the duties and creating another thread. :)

 

No way. This is your deal. And if it ends up being just you and me again, so be it. Hopefully a few others will join in this season though.

I hope so. But one look at our records from last year and they'll run away thinking there's no way they could compete.

 

If you guys think you were bad, just wait until you see how I do at this...

 

Brother, last year was beginner's "luck" for me.

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