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Coin flip...


laughedatbytime
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So...  

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  1. 1. See the question in the thread. .

    • 3-4
    • 5-7
    • 8-10
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    • Never, I was told the coin was fair...
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Suppose you were asked to participate in an experiment regarding flipping a coin. You were told the coin was fair at the inception of the experiment but it keeps coming up on the same side. After how many flips do you reject the premise that the coin is fair, if you do so at all?

 

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Statistical anomalies happen. But getting into the ten plus range, I want to know what's going on.

There certainly IS a mathematical component to the question...

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Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.

This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))

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I'd question after 4. That's long enough. Because the reality of it is that the distribution of heads and tails should be close to 50%.

 

4 shows that it's unlikely that the coin is fair. It's not proof though. Hence the question, and then further observation. After my stake in the game , if any, is out.

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Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.

 

I'm with you. But then, it does take me a minute to catch on when things are not quite right.

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Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.

This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))

Rick is right, technically - the best kind of "right" :lol: Being correct in an argument that flies in the face of all logic and common sense is a favourite abode of mine.

 

I used to go to the Casino a few times a week between 2000 and 2007. A friend (really, it wasn`t me) had a lightbulb moment with a new strategy for Roulette, where you would wait patiently and play the thirds - if 25-36 hasn`t hit for five spins, you lump on, doubling your stake each spin until it hits, as of course it has to...right? And you don`t lose the five spins you wait. There was deep schadenfreude in watching him sprinting to the cashier after 15 spins without ever hitting the final third, and his stake reached £800 on a spin... he gave up, and it was 18 spins ultimately, which is beyond the logic of a 1/3 chance but definitely within the infinite realm of a probable outcome.

 

I played less aggressively, as the complete chance element suited my view of a universe in chaos. And anyone with ADHD will enjoy watching a shiny ball spinning around :ebert:

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Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.

This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))

Rick is right, technically - the best kind of "right" :lol: Being correct in an argument that flies in the face of all logic and common sense is a favourite abode of mine.

 

I used to go to the Casino a few times a week between 2000 and 2007. A friend (really, it wasn`t me) had a lightbulb moment with a new strategy for Roulette, where you would wait patiently and play the thirds - if 25-36 hasn`t hit for five spins, you lump on, doubling your stake each spin until it hits, as of course it has to...right? And you don`t lose the five spins you wait. There was deep schadenfreude in watching him sprinting to the cashier after 15 spins without ever hitting the final third, and his stake reached £800 on a spin... he gave up, and it was 18 spins ultimately, which is beyond the logic of a 1/3 chance but definitely within the infinite realm of a probable outcome.

 

I played less aggressively, as the complete chance element suited my view of a universe in chaos. And anyone with ADHD will enjoy watching a shiny ball spinning around :ebert:

Ah, this is a truly great example of the best, deepest, and most abiding type of friendship, one sustained by the pure enjoyment of watching your friend suffer...

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Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.

This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))

Rick is right, technically - the best kind of "right" :lol: Being correct in an argument that flies in the face of all logic and common sense is a favourite abode of mine.

 

I used to go to the Casino a few times a week between 2000 and 2007. A friend (really, it wasn`t me) had a lightbulb moment with a new strategy for Roulette, where you would wait patiently and play the thirds - if 25-36 hasn`t hit for five spins, you lump on, doubling your stake each spin until it hits, as of course it has to...right? And you don`t lose the five spins you wait. There was deep schadenfreude in watching him sprinting to the cashier after 15 spins without ever hitting the final third, and his stake reached £800 on a spin... he gave up, and it was 18 spins ultimately, which is beyond the logic of a 1/3 chance but definitely within the infinite realm of a probable outcome.

 

I played less aggressively, as the complete chance element suited my view of a universe in chaos. And anyone with ADHD will enjoy watching a shiny ball spinning around :ebert:

Ah, this is a truly great example of the best, deepest, and most abiding type of friendship, one sustained by the pure enjoyment of watching your friend suffer...

He`s not ready to laugh with me over his £21,000 gaming losses in 2006 alone, not yet.
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Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.

This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))

Rick is right, technically - the best kind of "right" :lol: Being correct in an argument that flies in the face of all logic and common sense is a favourite abode of mine.

 

I used to go to the Casino a few times a week between 2000 and 2007. A friend (really, it wasn`t me) had a lightbulb moment with a new strategy for Roulette, where you would wait patiently and play the thirds - if 25-36 hasn`t hit for five spins, you lump on, doubling your stake each spin until it hits, as of course it has to...right? And you don`t lose the five spins you wait. There was deep schadenfreude in watching him sprinting to the cashier after 15 spins without ever hitting the final third, and his stake reached £800 on a spin... he gave up, and it was 18 spins ultimately, which is beyond the logic of a 1/3 chance but definitely within the infinite realm of a probable outcome.

 

I played less aggressively, as the complete chance element suited my view of a universe in chaos. And anyone with ADHD will enjoy watching a shiny ball spinning around :ebert:

Ah, this is a truly great example of the best, deepest, and most abiding type of friendship, one sustained by the pure enjoyment of watching your friend suffer...

He`s not ready to laugh with me over his £21,000 gaming losses in 2006 alone, not yet.

 

Ouch. that's a lot of Pound sterlings (or is it pounds sterling?) You Brits sometimes have funny ways with words. ;)

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Each flip is 50/50 - there is no history to a coin flip. Just like Roulette. If there are 20 flips in a row, or a million, next time is a new even chance.

This is true...if it's a fair coin. That should be the a priori expectation, given that you've been told that. The question of interest regards when you start to move from that expectation when experience indicates that it might make sense to do so. Because if something is observed often enough, it might make sense for doubt to creep in at some point, even for Rick St. Hubbins up there (though he may not have been entirely serious. ;))

Rick is right, technically - the best kind of "right" :lol: Being correct in an argument that flies in the face of all logic and common sense is a favourite abode of mine.

 

I used to go to the Casino a few times a week between 2000 and 2007. A friend (really, it wasn`t me) had a lightbulb moment with a new strategy for Roulette, where you would wait patiently and play the thirds - if 25-36 hasn`t hit for five spins, you lump on, doubling your stake each spin until it hits, as of course it has to...right? And you don`t lose the five spins you wait. There was deep schadenfreude in watching him sprinting to the cashier after 15 spins without ever hitting the final third, and his stake reached £800 on a spin... he gave up, and it was 18 spins ultimately, which is beyond the logic of a 1/3 chance but definitely within the infinite realm of a probable outcome.

 

I played less aggressively, as the complete chance element suited my view of a universe in chaos. And anyone with ADHD will enjoy watching a shiny ball spinning around :ebert:

Ah, this is a truly great example of the best, deepest, and most abiding type of friendship, one sustained by the pure enjoyment of watching your friend suffer...

He`s not ready to laugh with me over his £21,000 gaming losses in 2006 alone, not yet.

 

Ouch. that's a lot of Pound sterlings (or is it pounds sterling?) You Brits sometimes have funny ways with words. ;)

Some times we`d have pounds sterling stuffed in our socks because our wallets had exploded, other times it took till about Wednesday lunchtime before you could even speak :banghead:
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