The 2021 MLB Season Thread! Tatis Jr. Is A Stud! A's Padres World Series! Place Your Betts! LOL!

[edhunter]

As much as I hate soccer, it's time for baseball to adopt the tiered-league system that British soccer uses. Two tiers of 15 teams each, playing a 154 game schedule. 3 teams relegated down and promoted up each year with no salary cap.

 

There also needs to be rule changes need to be adopted to counter the effects of over-reliance on analytics. Eliminate the shift, institute a pitch clock. Eliminate letting players step out of the Batter's Box for anything other than a broken bat.

[edhunter]

The Tampa Bay Rays continue their quest to destroy the game of baseball...

 

 

 

The Tampa Bay Rays are searching for our next Baseball Research and Development Analyst.

 

Our R&D group helps shape the Baseball Operations decision-making processes through the analysis and interpretation of data. We are seeking those with a passion for baseball and a desire to contribute through mathematics, data analysis, and computation. The next members of our R&D team will be intellectual contributors that can work both individually and collaboratively, come up with interesting research questions to explore, find ways to answer those questions through the available data, develop, test and validate quantitative tools, communicate the results of their research, and work to apply their research outcomes to improve how our organization operates. The new hire will want to work with people who care about being a good teammate, want to make a positive impact on the organization, have an innovative spirit, and will explore new ways to improve. Does this describe you?

 

Responsibilities:

Build customized statistical modeling tools for accurate prediction and inference for various baseball applications.

Provide statistical modeling expertise to other R&D Analysts.

Optimize code to ensure quick and reliable model sampling/optimization.

Author both technical and non-technical internal reports on your work.

 

Qualifications:

Experience with Stan or other probabilistic programming language

Experience with R or Python

Deep understanding of the fundamentals of Bayesian Inference, MCMC, and Autocorrelation/Time Series Modeling.

Start date is flexible. For example, candidates with an extensive amount of remaining time left in an academic program are encouraged to apply immediately.

Candidates with non-traditional schooling backgrounds, as well as candidates with Advanced degree (Masters or PhD) in Statistics, Data Science, Machine Learning, or a related field are encouraged to apply

 

All offers contingent on a satisfactory background check.

 

https://www.teamwork...lopment-1985376

By being able to beat a team with 5 times the payroll and a sense of entitlement infinitely greater.

 

It has nothing to do with being a fan of any particular team so much as being a fan of the game. Analytics will take a team only so far, but at the end of the day you still need star players to win. What good is watching a team like Tampa Bay destroy the game only to still be beaten at the end? Even the freaking deep-pocketed Red Sox have become over-reliant on the analytics. They have a different goal in mind though. Their owner just bought the Pittsburgh Penguins and also owns Liverpool in the Premier league. Their goals are to remain competitive enough where they still receive playoff revenue and reap profits yet don't spend the money required to actually win. They know they can exploit their fans that way. The Red Sox analytics team this year ran over 50 computer models before the trade deadline using various combinations of acquired players like Scherzer and Rizzo. Not one model had them winning the World Series, so they didn't spend the money. Yet they made the final 4. It's not inconceivable to think that adding one of those 2 other players would have gotten them past Houston and into the WS against the Braves.

Edited November 27, 2021 by edhunter

[laughedatbytime]

The Tampa Bay Rays continue their quest to destroy the game of baseball...

 

 

 

The Tampa Bay Rays are searching for our next Baseball Research and Development Analyst.

 

Our R&D group helps shape the Baseball Operations decision-making processes through the analysis and interpretation of data. We are seeking those with a passion for baseball and a desire to contribute through mathematics, data analysis, and computation. The next members of our R&D team will be intellectual contributors that can work both individually and collaboratively, come up with interesting research questions to explore, find ways to answer those questions through the available data, develop, test and validate quantitative tools, communicate the results of their research, and work to apply their research outcomes to improve how our organization operates. The new hire will want to work with people who care about being a good teammate, want to make a positive impact on the organization, have an innovative spirit, and will explore new ways to improve. Does this describe you?

 

Responsibilities:

Build customized statistical modeling tools for accurate prediction and inference for various baseball applications.

Provide statistical modeling expertise to other R&D Analysts.

Optimize code to ensure quick and reliable model sampling/optimization.

Author both technical and non-technical internal reports on your work.

 

Qualifications:

Experience with Stan or other probabilistic programming language

Experience with R or Python

Deep understanding of the fundamentals of Bayesian Inference, MCMC, and Autocorrelation/Time Series Modeling.

Start date is flexible. For example, candidates with an extensive amount of remaining time left in an academic program are encouraged to apply immediately.

Candidates with non-traditional schooling backgrounds, as well as candidates with Advanced degree (Masters or PhD) in Statistics, Data Science, Machine Learning, or a related field are encouraged to apply

 

All offers contingent on a satisfactory background check.

 

https://www.teamwork...lopment-1985376

By being able to beat a team with 5 times the payroll and a sense of entitlement infinitely greater.

 

It has nothing to do with being a fan of any particular team so much as being a fan of the game. Analytics will take a team only so far, but at the end of the day you still need star players to win. What good is watching a team like Tampa Bay destroy the game only to still be beaten at the end? Even the freaking deep-pocketed Red Sox have become over-reliant on the analytics. They have a different goal in mind though. Their owner just bought the Pittsburgh Penguins and also owns Liverpool in the Premier league. Their goals are to remain competitive enough where they still receive playoff revenue and reap profits yet don't spend the money required to actually win. The Red Sox analytics team this year ran over 50 computer models before the trade deadline using various combinations of acquired players like Scherzer and Rizzo. Not one model had them winning the World Series, so they didn't spend the money. Yet they made the final 4. It's not inconceivable to think that adding one of those 2 other players would have gotten them past Houston and into the WS against the Braves.

With the playoff structure the way it is the best team only has about a 20% chance of winning so the fact that the Rays have not won the last two years should not be surprising. What they have been able to do is give themselves the best chance of winning by being smarter than anyone else. That should be rewarded, not who has the most money and is willing to spend it.

 

With no salary cap it will be the same 4-5 teams fighting it out every year for the title. It should go without saying who those teams are. I can't think of anything that would kill interest in the game more.

 

As someone who deals with stochastic models, it would be interesting to see how they came up with the conclusions they did. I find it hard to believe they never won the World Series in any of the simulations they ran. Fangraphs had their odds at 7% at the end of the season and 8.4% at the trade deadline.

[Nova Carmina]

Interesting, I thought. If the teams recognized that baseball is the product, and not "The Yankees" or "The Rays" . . . a fun thought experiment.

 

https://www.royalsreview.com/2021/11/20/22792015/capitalism-is-ruining-baseball

[edhunter]

The Tampa Bay Rays continue their quest to destroy the game of baseball...

 

 

 

The Tampa Bay Rays are searching for our next Baseball Research and Development Analyst.

 

Our R&D group helps shape the Baseball Operations decision-making processes through the analysis and interpretation of data. We are seeking those with a passion for baseball and a desire to contribute through mathematics, data analysis, and computation. The next members of our R&D team will be intellectual contributors that can work both individually and collaboratively, come up with interesting research questions to explore, find ways to answer those questions through the available data, develop, test and validate quantitative tools, communicate the results of their research, and work to apply their research outcomes to improve how our organization operates. The new hire will want to work with people who care about being a good teammate, want to make a positive impact on the organization, have an innovative spirit, and will explore new ways to improve. Does this describe you?

 

Responsibilities:

Build customized statistical modeling tools for accurate prediction and inference for various baseball applications.

Provide statistical modeling expertise to other R&D Analysts.

Optimize code to ensure quick and reliable model sampling/optimization.

Author both technical and non-technical internal reports on your work.

 

Qualifications:

Experience with Stan or other probabilistic programming language

Experience with R or Python

Deep understanding of the fundamentals of Bayesian Inference, MCMC, and Autocorrelation/Time Series Modeling.

Start date is flexible. For example, candidates with an extensive amount of remaining time left in an academic program are encouraged to apply immediately.

Candidates with non-traditional schooling backgrounds, as well as candidates with Advanced degree (Masters or PhD) in Statistics, Data Science, Machine Learning, or a related field are encouraged to apply

 

All offers contingent on a satisfactory background check.

 

https://www.teamwork...lopment-1985376

By being able to beat a team with 5 times the payroll and a sense of entitlement infinitely greater.

 

It has nothing to do with being a fan of any particular team so much as being a fan of the game. Analytics will take a team only so far, but at the end of the day you still need star players to win. What good is watching a team like Tampa Bay destroy the game only to still be beaten at the end? Even the freaking deep-pocketed Red Sox have become over-reliant on the analytics. They have a different goal in mind though. Their owner just bought the Pittsburgh Penguins and also owns Liverpool in the Premier league. Their goals are to remain competitive enough where they still receive playoff revenue and reap profits yet don't spend the money required to actually win. The Red Sox analytics team this year ran over 50 computer models before the trade deadline using various combinations of acquired players like Scherzer and Rizzo. Not one model had them winning the World Series, so they didn't spend the money. Yet they made the final 4. It's not inconceivable to think that adding one of those 2 other players would have gotten them past Houston and into the WS against the Braves.

With the playoff structure the way it is the best team only has about a 20% chance of winning so the fact that the Rays have not won the last two years should not be surprising. What they have been able to do is give themselves the best chance of winning by being smarter than anyone else. That should be rewarded, not who has the most money and is willing to spend it.

 

With no salary cap it will be the same 4-5 teams fighting it out every year for the title. It should go without saying who those teams are. I can't think of anything that would kill interest in the game more.

 

As someone who deals with stochastic models, it would be interesting to see how they came up with the conclusions they did. I find it hard to believe they never won the World Series in any of the simulations they ran. Fangraphs had their odds at 7% at the end of the season and 8.4% at the trade deadline.

 

Unfortunately the Red Sox front office has been very cryptic in their comments. They won't directly acknowledge the models they ran, just that they have a plan and the season lived up to the expectations they had according to that plan. The recent purchase of the Penguins has made things much more clear though. John Henry, the Red Sox owner, is just building a sports portfolio, and was shifting revenue for the purchase. Apparently the increase in value from winning a championship being shipped isn't significantly better than just being one of the top contenders.

 

 

A tiered system would motivate teams and the league to find ways to return baseball to the status it had before the NFL took over as America's pastime. It will never get there the way it is now even if Tampa Bay somehow became a dynasty. People watch the NCAA Tournament because they love to see the potential of a 16 over a 1 or a 15 over a 2 in the early rounds. But at the end of the day you want chalk in the Final 4. No one wants to see Florida International or UMBC there.

[edhunter]

And move the Rays to Charlotte or New Orleans or Nashville.

[laughedatbytime]

Interesting, I thought. If the teams recognized that baseball is the product, and not "The Yankees" or "The Rays" . . . a fun thought experiment.

 

https://www.royalsre...uining-baseball

I have no problem with the onfield play and uses of different strategies for player and pitcher use, but the disparity in franchises' ability to acquire quality players needs to be reduced.

[laughedatbytime]

And move the Rays to Charlotte or New Orleans or Nashville.

Or Tampa.

[laughedatbytime]

The Tampa Bay Rays continue their quest to destroy the game of baseball...

 

 

 

The Tampa Bay Rays are searching for our next Baseball Research and Development Analyst.

 

Our R&D group helps shape the Baseball Operations decision-making processes through the analysis and interpretation of data. We are seeking those with a passion for baseball and a desire to contribute through mathematics, data analysis, and computation. The next members of our R&D team will be intellectual contributors that can work both individually and collaboratively, come up with interesting research questions to explore, find ways to answer those questions through the available data, develop, test and validate quantitative tools, communicate the results of their research, and work to apply their research outcomes to improve how our organization operates. The new hire will want to work with people who care about being a good teammate, want to make a positive impact on the organization, have an innovative spirit, and will explore new ways to improve. Does this describe you?

 

Responsibilities:

Build customized statistical modeling tools for accurate prediction and inference for various baseball applications.

Provide statistical modeling expertise to other R&D Analysts.

Optimize code to ensure quick and reliable model sampling/optimization.

Author both technical and non-technical internal reports on your work.

 

Qualifications:

Experience with Stan or other probabilistic programming language

Experience with R or Python

Deep understanding of the fundamentals of Bayesian Inference, MCMC, and Autocorrelation/Time Series Modeling.

Start date is flexible. For example, candidates with an extensive amount of remaining time left in an academic program are encouraged to apply immediately.

Candidates with non-traditional schooling backgrounds, as well as candidates with Advanced degree (Masters or PhD) in Statistics, Data Science, Machine Learning, or a related field are encouraged to apply

 

All offers contingent on a satisfactory background check.

 

https://www.teamwork...lopment-1985376

By being able to beat a team with 5 times the payroll and a sense of entitlement infinitely greater.

 

It has nothing to do with being a fan of any particular team so much as being a fan of the game. Analytics will take a team only so far, but at the end of the day you still need star players to win. What good is watching a team like Tampa Bay destroy the game only to still be beaten at the end? Even the freaking deep-pocketed Red Sox have become over-reliant on the analytics. They have a different goal in mind though. Their owner just bought the Pittsburgh Penguins and also owns Liverpool in the Premier league. Their goals are to remain competitive enough where they still receive playoff revenue and reap profits yet don't spend the money required to actually win. The Red Sox analytics team this year ran over 50 computer models before the trade deadline using various combinations of acquired players like Scherzer and Rizzo. Not one model had them winning the World Series, so they didn't spend the money. Yet they made the final 4. It's not inconceivable to think that adding one of those 2 other players would have gotten them past Houston and into the WS against the Braves.

With the playoff structure the way it is the best team only has about a 20% chance of winning so the fact that the Rays have not won the last two years should not be surprising. What they have been able to do is give themselves the best chance of winning by being smarter than anyone else. That should be rewarded, not who has the most money and is willing to spend it.

 

With no salary cap it will be the same 4-5 teams fighting it out every year for the title. It should go without saying who those teams are. I can't think of anything that would kill interest in the game more.

 

As someone who deals with stochastic models, it would be interesting to see how they came up with the conclusions they did. I find it hard to believe they never won the World Series in any of the simulations they ran. Fangraphs had their odds at 7% at the end of the season and 8.4% at the trade deadline.

 

Unfortunately the Red Sox front office has been very cryptic in their comments. They won't directly acknowledge the models they ran, just that they have a plan and the season lived up to the expectations they had according to that plan. The recent purchase of the Penguins has made things much more clear though. John Henry, the Red Sox owner, is just building a sports portfolio, and was shifting revenue for the purchase. Apparently the increase in value from winning a championship being shipped isn't significantly better than just being one of the top contenders.

 

 

A tiered system would motivate teams and the league to find ways to return baseball to the status it had before the NFL took over as America's pastime. It will never get there the way it is now even if Tampa Bay somehow became a dynasty. People watch the NCAA Tournament because they love to see the potential of a 16 over a 1 or a 15 over a 2 in the early rounds. But at the end of the day you want chalk in the Final 4. No one wants to see Florida International or UMBC there.

That type of opacity is something that would lead me to not give the franchise a dime.

 

Addressing the second point, I have heard anecdotal evidence of this (when George Mason made the Final Four the ratings were down) though that's not my personal feeling; I and I'm sure many others do want to see them there. To me, the popularity of a sport is to a significant degree now, and will increasingly be in the future, tied to how accessible it is to betting. The NFL is the most accessible to bet (and has the most parity financially, by the way), and office pools are primarily (imo) responsible for the popularity of the tournament. Baseball will never be able to touch that in terms of mass appeal.

[edhunter]

Interesting, I thought. If the teams recognized that baseball is the product, and not "The Yankees" or "The Rays" . . . a fun thought experiment.

 

https://www.royalsre...uining-baseball

I have no problem with the onfield play and uses of different strategies for player and pitcher use, but the disparity in franchises' ability to acquire quality players needs to be reduced.

 

That sounds a lot like socialism....

[laughedatbytime]

Interesting, I thought. If the teams recognized that baseball is the product, and not "The Yankees" or "The Rays" . . . a fun thought experiment.

 

https://www.royalsre...uining-baseball

I have no problem with the onfield play and uses of different strategies for player and pitcher use, but the disparity in franchises' ability to acquire quality players needs to be reduced.

 

That sounds a lot like socialism....

I was waiting for that. Surprised it took so long.

 

Private vs public

[edhunter]

Interesting, I thought. If the teams recognized that baseball is the product, and not "The Yankees" or "The Rays" . . . a fun thought experiment.

 

https://www.royalsre...uining-baseball

I have no problem with the onfield play and uses of different strategies for player and pitcher use, but the disparity in franchises' ability to acquire quality players needs to be reduced.

 

That sounds a lot like socialism....

I was waiting for that. Surprised it took so long.

 

Private vs public

 

That's even worse then. You would force privately owned teams with means to tie one arm behind their back? If you truly want to bring costs under control you would abolish long term contracts and make every single player a free agent every single year. Charlie Finley advocated for that at the outset of free agency in the 70's when it was inevitable that it was going to happen. It's far too late now. But forcing the owner of the Yankees to pay a luxury tax so that the owner of the Twins can use that money to buy a new ski villa in Aspen hardly seems right either.

Edited November 27, 2021 by edhunter

[The Analog Cub]

Interesting, I thought. If the teams recognized that baseball is the product, and not "The Yankees" or "The Rays" . . . a fun thought experiment.

 

https://www.royalsre...uining-baseball

I have no problem with the onfield play and uses of different strategies for player and pitcher use, but the disparity in franchises' ability to acquire quality players needs to be reduced.

 

Uninterested ownership needs to be removed as well. The Pirates fanbase has long suffered for no good reason at all.

[laughedatbytime]

Interesting, I thought. If the teams recognized that baseball is the product, and not "The Yankees" or "The Rays" . . . a fun thought experiment.

 

https://www.royalsre...uining-baseball

I have no problem with the onfield play and uses of different strategies for player and pitcher use, but the disparity in franchises' ability to acquire quality players needs to be reduced.

 

That sounds a lot like socialism....

I was waiting for that. Surprised it took so long.

 

Private vs public

 

That's even worse then. You would force privately owned teams with means to tie one arm behind their back? If you truly want to bring costs under control you would abolish long term contracts and make every single player a free agent every single year. Charlie Finley advocated for that at the outset of free agency in the 70's when it was inevitable that it was going to happen. It's far too late now. But forcing the owner of the Yankees to pay a luxury tax so that the owner of the Twins can use that money to buy a new ski villa in Aspen hardly seems right either.

When I first heard of it I was OK with the Finley idea but it would just mean the richest smart team would be disproportionately favored.

 

I would institute a meaningful minimal spend to require teams to at least try to compete so owners couldn't just use their franchise as a cash cow as well.

[goose]

This year's playoffs and Series were great fun. You had a surprise pre-season dog (SF) end up with the best record, and a mid-season loses (Atlanta) end up winning it all through trades and fantastic team play.

 

Let's fix things so this never happens again!!! :lol:

[driventotheedge]

And move the Rays to Charlotte or New Orleans or Nashville.

Or Las Vegas

[driventotheedge]

Max Scherzer signs with the Mets. My first thought is that he doesn't care about anything but the money since they've pretty much been shit for quite a long time. Is anyone here more familiar with them and does he have a chance to win with them?

[edhunter]

Max Scherzer signs with the Mets. My first thought is that he doesn't care about anything but the money since they've pretty much been shit for quite a long time. Is anyone here more familiar with them and does he have a chance to win with them?

 

He has already won his ring with Washington. Now it's time to get paid.

[laughedatbytime]

Apparently, f***ing Rob Manfred has included in the CBA negotiations a 14 team playoff field.

 

GFY, Manfred.

[invisible airwave]

And move the Rays to Charlotte or New Orleans or Nashville.

Or Las Vegas

 

Then one in the west would leave. Houston moved to the AL west so that 5 teams were in each division...and you, goose and I all suffered years later with the trash can cheaters getting away with it. :banghead:

[invisible airwave]

Corey Seager just went full A Rod with a 10 year contract for Texas. Have fun in last place again. :lol:

 

Yanks might get Simmons from the Twins. He was one of the few decent additions to the Angels when Eppler was in charge. Miss his defensive skills.

[invisible airwave]

Javier Baez to Tigers for 6 years and $140 million.

 

Yeah, go to a team that isn't exactly known for winning. That will stop the booing. :eyeroll:

Edited November 30, 2021 by invisible airwave

[driventotheedge]

And move the Rays to Charlotte or New Orleans or Nashville.

Or Las Vegas

 

Then one in the west would leave. Houston moved to the AL west so that 5 teams were in each division...and you, goose and I all suffered years later with the trash can cheaters getting away with it. :banghead:

Move the Rangers or Houston out. Oh, and fukk the cheatros.

[driventotheedge]

Lockout:

Fukk the owners

Fukk the players (union)

Fukk Manfred

 

 

When are you clueless MFers ever going to realize your game is dying and all your doing with your endless MUTUAL greed is drive the stake further into the sport's heart.

Such a wonderful game and you're fukking killing it!

 

(I'll withdraw the above if by some total miracle they work it out in time for Spring training in LESS THAN 3 MONTHS)

[invisible airwave]

It nearly prevented my Angels from winning 2002 when a looming strike was averted shortly before it began. Count your blessings, halo nation. At least they got there. Just think if Cleveland may have won in 1994 or Montreal even though they finally won in 2019 in the state capital.